By Harry King
LITTLE ROCK — Think Steven Hill heroics vs. Tennessee on a much larger stage.
A “No, No, Yesssss” basket from an unlikely contributor. It will happen once or twice during the 48 NCAA Tournament games this week, and it is the anticipation of such heroics that compels us to watch teams from conferences that we dismiss until it is tournament time.
Last week, in the finals of the Northeast Conference Tournament, there was a sneak peek at what can happen.
In the final seconds, Robert Morris’ top scorer, Jeremy Chappell, was headed for the basket to break a tie at 46 when he lost control of the ball. It bounced to teammate Dallas Green who had not made a field goal in the game.
Coach Mike Rice admitted that Green was the last player on the court that he wanted to take the shot, just as John Pelphrey owned up to Hill being the fifth option against the No. 4 Vols in the semifinals of the SEC Tournament last year.
Green’s nickname “is the screen machine, for the all the screens he sets,” Rice said after Green hit the 8-footer that put the Colonials in the NCAA Tournament opposite Michigan State. A No. 15 seed, the Colonials are a 17-point underdog and that’s an upset that won’t happen.
To truly qualify as an upset, the winner has to be at least a No. 10 over a No. 7. The difference between a No. 9 and a No. 8 is minuscule. In fact, No. 9 Tennessee is a slight betting favorite over No. 8 Oklahoma State.
Before filling in a bracket, insist that the caretaker award extra points for an upset. Anybody who can come up with a No. 14 over a No. 3 or a No. 13 over a No. 4 should be handsomely rewarded.
A loss this week by any of the top eight teams would be a surprise. Memphis might be the most vulnerable of that group, only because of the ever-present question about the Tigers’ competition in Conference USA.
Louisville was my pick until the Cardinals won the Big East Conference Tournament. Personal druthers are for a talented bunch that loses in the conference tournament like Arkansas did in 1994.
Note that the NCAA Selection Committee cared little about losses suffered in the conference tournaments. Eight of the teams ranked in The AP top 10 last week lost after the rankings were released. Three of those losers are No. 1 seeds and three others are No. 2 seeds. One is a No. 3 and one is a No. 4, additional testament to the committee’s emphasis on body of work.
In Las Vegas, the No. 1 seeds are the four favorites, with Pittsburgh and Louisville the shortest price at 4-1 at the MGM Mirage sports book. North Carolina is 9-2 and UConn is 6-1.
Scanning the numbers, it is surprising that Tennessee from the much maligned SEC is 35-1 to win it all and a shorter price than Syracuse, runner-up in the Big East tournament at 45-1.
By the time four teams get to Detroit, there will be at least a couple of No. 1 seeds still standing and it would be a shock to see any team below a No. 3 make it that far.
If there is an obligation to pursue a longshot to the end, Arizona State is worth a look. Hired way from North Carolina State, Herb Sendek has turned around the Sun Devils’ program in three years. ASU was 2-16 in the Pac-10 his first year, and that included a 15-game losing streak. Last year, ASU was 21-12 and 9-9 in the league. This year, they were 24-9 and 11-7.
Sendek’s offense is usually described as methodical, just the style that can make an opponent antsy. Oddly, the sixth-seeded Sun Devils are only 20-1 to win it all. Every other team at 20-1 or less is a fourth seed or better.
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Harry King is sports columnist for Stephens Media’s Arkansas News Bureau. His e-mail address is hking@arkansasnews.com.
