By Harry King

LITTLE ROCK — Quoting a “told you so” about college football is impermissible until consuming a helping of crow.

Pass the salt, please. Extracted from a pre-Christmas column about Arkansas basketball, this morsel needs some seasoning.

It was phrased: “Chances Are” John Pelphrey’s team will qualify for postseason play? The erroneous assessment was 85 percent.

That confession out of the way, let’s move on to a mid-August ramble that turned out to be accurate and, therefore, entitles the author to identify the college football teams that will be overrated in 2009.

This was about Georgia being No. 1 in every preseason poll that mattered and how four members of the preseason Top 10 in 2007 each lost four or more games.

“Those most likely to disappoint this year include Georgia, No. 6 Missouri, No. 7 LSU and No. 9 Clemson. Georgia and LSU are candidates because of the competition in the SEC. Plus, the Bulldogs have the bullseye and the Tigers don’t have an established quarterback. … Missouri and Clemson are in rarefied  air and both could lose their opener — Missouri against Illinois and Clemson vs. Alabama.”

Clemson did lose to Alabama; Missouri faltered late.

In the final poll, thrice-beaten Georgia was No. 13, four-time loser Missouri was No. 19, LSU was among those also receiving votes, and Clemson coach Tommy Bowden was ousted.

From a look back to a look ahead in one paragraph. What a transition.

The available rankings are heavily under the influence of the bowl games and nobody is more overrated than Ole Miss.

The Rebels looked good in the Cotton Bowl, dispatching a Texas Tech that had beaten Texas and once was No. 1 in the country. Quarterback Jevan Snead is a plus and so is versatile Dexter McCluster who eluded Tech defenders on several occasions, but there was a season-long question about defense in the Big 12.

Ole Miss will not surprise anybody this fall and the contender label can be difficult thing to handle, particularly when the tag is new. Remember, Ole Miss is only one successful year removed from four straight losing seasons.

Florida disappears from the Ole Miss schedule, but the Rebels finish against Tennessee, LSU and Mississippi State — a November to remember, indeed.

Oklahoma State is another preseason favorite likely to fall short. Same for USC, if only because of the measuring stick used for the elite.

In late January, a Web site called nationalchamps.net averaged five 2009 polls and came up with Florida at No. 1, followed by Texas, Oklahoma, USC, Alabama, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State, Ohio State, LSU and Ole Miss.

Expectations for Oklahoma State begin with quarterback Zac Robinson, wide receiver Dez Bryant and running back Kendall Hunter. Last year, Robinson threw for 3,064 yards, Bryant caught 87 passes and Hunter ran for 1,555 yards.

Defense is still part of the game and OSU was 7-0 before giving up 28 points to Texas, 56 to Texas Tech, 61 to Oklahoma and 41 to Oregon in a bowl game. This year, OSU should get off to a fast start against a Georgia team that has lost its star quarterback and running back. But, the Cowboys are still in the same Big 12 division with Texas and Oklahoma.

USC is unique because of the perception that the Pac-10 can’t stack up with the SEC, Big 12 and others, and any league loss can cost the Trojans a chance at the national title.

Again, the question is about defense. Last year, the Trojans had nine seniors on that side of the ball, including five who were first team all-conference. USC has a stockpile of talent, but replacing Rey Maulauga and his fellow marauders will take some doing.

If there are disappointments, there must be surprises to replace them, but identifying them is for another day.
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Harry King is sports columnist for Stephens Media’s Arkansas News Bureau. His e-mail address is hking@arkansasnews.com.