By David J. Sanders

Next year there probably will be two or three Republicans vying for the opportunity to run against U.S. Sen. Blanche Lincoln. But so far, there is only one Republican who has stepped up to the challenge while several others are eyeing the race. For our purposes, let’s consider the only announced candidate — state Sen. Kim Hendren.

This one-time conservative Democrat turned moderate Republican from Gravette announced his candidacy via e-mail the other day, which for the 71-year-old firebrand, shows that he doesn’t eschew the comforts of modern technology. Neither age nor vitality are problems for Hendren, who is said to be the picture of health. His politics could be a problem, though.

Citing his fixed ties to the Hutchinson tribe, which is the state’s last Republican dynasty, is often the knee-jerk reaction to his candidacy. But even though he is married to Asa and Tim Hutchinson’s sister, the political similarities they share are limited to their unyielding social conservatism.

Republicans, who aren’t rushing to support his candidacy, point out that his voting record on economic issues isn’t so conservative. Since coming back to the state Senate, he has consistently voted for tax increases and new government spending. His supporters, hoping to turn this obvious negative into something positive, readily cite his lack of conservative rigidity as potential benefit. They say it will make him more acceptable in a general election. While that may be a nice talking point, it misses the mark completely.

There is a slim chance that with some reminding from Republicans, Mrs. Lincoln could get crossways with Arkansas voters over her record on fiscal policy. This task will be difficult for the GOP because she is purposefully distancing herself from President Barack Obama.

All the fuel currently powering the grassroots comes from aggravation over Washington’s current spending binge. At least on fiscal policy, Hendren’s philosophy is more closely aligned with Lincoln’s than his brother-in-law, former U.S. Sen. Hutchinson, who, if he were still in office, would no doubt would be leading the charge against the Obama Administration’s colossal spending and aggressive intervention in the private sector.

His supporters make the point that if nominated, Hendren could and would “out populist” Mrs. Lincoln by constantly pointing out that she has consistently sided with big business — specifically big banking interests, which these days are as unpopular as big tobacco and big oil. She did vote for legislation written by the big banks that make it more difficult for Arkansas families to escape economic calamity through the bankruptcy courts, but any Republican could make that point.

For all the talk about a Northwest Arkansas Republican having the edge in a GOP primary, I’m not sure that’s the case with Hendren. Even though an overwhelming majority of Republican primary voters reside in the state’s upper left corner, those voters tend to support candidates based on ideology, not regionalism. It just so happens that over the past decade, Northwest Arkansas has produced Republican candidates who were more conservative than their counterparts from the state’s other regions.

The upside to a Hendren candidacy is that he’s full of surprises. In addition to being affable, animated, and funny, he will say just about anything to get his point across. And, for that reason alone, potential Republican opponents wouldn’t have an easy time trying to pin him down. He is a moving target. And, if he emerged victorious from the Republican primary, he’d give those of us in this business plenty to write about.

But his upside also has a downside. Hendren’s unpredictability stems from his lacking self discipline. It’s hard to imagine him sticking to a script day in, day out. The campaign trail will only magnify his affinity for dining on his foot.

That said, even with all his potential negatives, Hendren will be a tough candidate in a Republican primary. No one considering the race should gloss over his candidacy.
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David J. Sanders writes twice weekly for the Arkansas News Bureau in Little Rock and is the host of Arkansas Education Television Network’s “Unconventional Wisdom.” His e-mail address is DavidJSanders@aol.com.