By Harry King
LITTLE ROCK — Adding a quarter-mile to the Kentucky Derby distance and extrapolating a romp for Mine That Bird in Saturday’s Belmont is a mistake.
From track surface to fresh faces, there are new variables from five weeks ago when Mine That Bird passed 18 horses to win by almost seven lengths. Above all else, there is a probable pace scenario that could put Mine That Bird in a serious hole.
Handicappers will tell you there is nothing more dangerous than “lone speed,” the thoroughbred who goes to the front out of the gate and lopes along without pressure. When the real running starts, such easy-going pacesetters still have gas in the tank.
It is the same with humans. Next week, Arkansas’ Andy McClary and Dorian Ulrey will be cognizant of the pace when they compete in the 1,500 meters at the NCAA Outdoor Track and Field championship in Fayetteville.
The thing is that only two of the 10 thoroughbreds entered in the Belmont appear to have enough early foot to grab the lead. They are Charitable Man and Miner’s Escape, and the former is much quicker than the latter. The Derby winner can’t do a thing about the pace. Mine That Bird is only effective when lagging behind and making a dramatic late run.
Oaklawn Park regular D. Wayne Lukas says maintaining a “high cruising speed” is the way to the Belmont winner’s circle, and he knows whereof he speaks. A four-time winner of the Belmont, Lukas said, “Those horses who are steady and can maintain it for a mile-and-a-half” are the ones who succeed in the final leg of the Triple Crown.
Charitable Man trainer Kiaran McLaughlin said he would not trade places with anybody.
“We feel he has the right running style to get the mile and a half,” said McLaughlin, who won the 2006 Belmont with Jazil.
Charitable Man is such a wise-guy choice that he is 3-1 on the morning line, only a tick behind favored Mine That Bird at 2-1.
Before investing in Charitable Man, it would be beneficial to know how trainer Nick Zito wants Jose Lezcano to ride Miner’s Escape. What if Zito tells Lezcano to floor-board it from the gate in hopes of improving the chances of stablemate Brave Victory? Does Alan Garcia chase Miner’s Escape with Charitable Man or bide his time and wait for the leader to tire? What if the pace is so slow that Miner’s Escape doesn’t wilt?
Reducing the Belmont to Mine That Bird vs. Charitable Man is risky. For starters, that approach assumes that Charitable Man is going to be in front and that Mine That Bird is going to be the only chaser. It also disses Dunkirk, the “now” horse of the Kentucky Derby.
Five weeks ago, Dunkirk was so well thought of that he was the 5-1 second choice in Louisville. He stumbled early and never got in the race. Since then, he has been on the sidelines, waiting for the Belmont. A horse should not be abandoned because of one bad race on a sloppy racetrack.
Citing the perceived pace advantage, Dunkirk trainer Todd Pletcher called Charitable Man the horse to beat. Ditto for McLaughlin. Jockey Calvin Borel predicted that he would win aboard Mine That Bird, “no questions asked.”
Mo Williams said the same thing about his Cleveland Cavaliers.
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Harry King is sports columnist for Stephens Media’s Arkansas News Bureau. His e-mail address is hking@arkansasnews.com.
