By David J. Sanders

Let’s take a minute and ponder the political fortunes of two prominent Arkansas politicians – Gov. Mike Beebe and U.S. Sen. Blanche Lincoln. Both are up for re-election next year.

Gov. Mike Beebe: I’m guilty of saying it, but is the governor really indestructible? There aren’t a lot of folks lining up to run against him. But consider this: All measures of public opinion show that a majority of Arkansans are deeply concerned about the economy and the loss of jobs. Gov. Beebe spends a lot of time talking about how Arkansas has bucked the trend nationally during this economic recession, but he’s primarily talking about the state’s ability to extract money from the economy.

Arkansas job losses are mounting; in fact some of the jobs Gov. Beebe claims that he helped create, which means those jobs he lured here by spending our tax dollars, are leaving. LM Glasfiber, the windmill blade company, announced this week that in addition to the 150 layoffs it announced in January, it would be sending another 80 workers home.

One might think the Denmark company would have to give back some of the money Gov. Beebe paid out, but I’m told that lawmakers stripped out the company’s  performance metrics for employment, which were part of the original agreement that got them to come here. Did we pay for more jobs than we got?

What is Beebe’s job-creation record? The Arkansas Department of Economic Development claims the administration has created several. Joe Holmes, AEDC’s communications director, said in an e-mail that from “January 1, 2007 through today, the number of announced jobs (new companies and expansions) is approximately 21,395.”  That number includes “announced” jobs that haven’t been filled.

But, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Arkansas’ total nonfarm payrolls in January 2007 totaled 1,201,100 and in April of this year the number was 1,180,100. That’s 21,000 lost jobs.

The BLS also shows that government employment growth rate has outpaced private sector job growth every year of the Beebe Administration, so much that government employment has become the state’s second largest employment sector.

He might be indestructible, but his record on jobs isn’t.

Sen. Blanche Lincoln: Arkansas’ senior U.S. senator continues to attract attention from would-be challengers. Her people – those in her party and even some in the campaign – are aware that events beyond her control could shape her race. If the nation’s mood toward incumbents continues to sour, there should be some concern that such a national trend could, in fact, become an Arkansas trend.

There have been a few polls, both public and private, that have revealed weakness in her numbers. Historically, Arkansas U.S. senators who are looking for voters to send them back to Washington for a third time, like Lincoln, have faired well in measures of public opinion. The idea is that re-election should get easier as voters realize that their elected representatives, through years of service, are building seniority and thus becoming more effective. But for reasons I’m not completely sure of, that’s not happening with Mrs. Lincoln.

Arkansas Democrats’ electoral currency is derived from their ability to contrast themselves from those dreaded Ted Kennedy-style liberal Democrats in Washington. And, try as she may – like coming out against the Employee Free Choice Act – some Republicans believe that her Democratic allies in the Senate, many of whom are worried about their own re-election prospects, are going to need her to start acting like a Democrat again, especially when it comes to passing their federal takeover of health care.

There are a number of Republicans who are thinking about running against her. But, if I might refer to history again, none of her would-be Republican challengers come close to approaching the stature Arkansans expect of their senators.

That said, voters can be fickle. And, after all, 2010 might not be the year in which a traditional politician thrives.

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David J. Sanders writes twice weekly for the Arkansas News Bureau in Little Rock and is the host of Arkansas Education Television Network’s “Unconventional Wisdom.” His e-mail address is DavidJSanders@aol.com.