By John Lyon
Arkansas News Bureau

LITTLE ROCK — A new poll shows 78 percent of Arkansans approve of the job Gov. Mike Beebe is doing as governor. While 49 percent approve of the job Blanche Lincoln is doing as U.S. senator, 60 percent would not vote to re-elect her if the election was held today.

A majority of respondents — 54 percent — said they disapprove of the job President Obama is doing, and 65 percent said the country is on the wrong track.

The poll was commissioned by Talk Business Quarterly, a magazine headed by Stephens
Media columnist Roby Brock. Washington-based Wilson Research Strategies surveyed 600 likely Arkansas voters by phone July 13-15, with respondents divided between Arkansas’ four congressional districts — 24 percent in the 1st, 26 percent in the 2nd, 26 percent in the 3rd and 24 percent in the 4th.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.

In answer to the question, “Do you approve or disapprove of the job Mike Beebe is doing as governor?” 25 percent of respondents said they strongly approve, 53 percent said they somewhat approve, 10 percent said they somewhat disapprove, 5 percent said they strongly disapprove and 7 percent said they did not know.

“I think there’s a strong awareness of where we are as a state and where we’re trying to go,” Beebe spokesman Matt DeCample said today when asked to comment on the poll. “He (Beebe) has obviously been working hard — the whole state has been working hard — to get us back on better financial footing, and we’ll continue that work for the people.”

The question, “Do you approve or disapprove of the job Blanche Lincoln is doing as U.S. senator?” drew these responses: Strongly approve, 15 percent; somewhat approve, 34 percent; somewhat disapprove, 17 percent, strongly disapprove; 23 percent, don’t know, 10 percent.

When asked, “If the 2010 election was held today and you had to make a choice, would you vote to re-elect Blanche Lincoln as our U.S. senator no matter who ran against her?” 27 percent of respondents said yes, 60 percent said no and 13 percent said they did not know.

Steve Patterson, Lincoln’s campaign chairman, said today the poll results are “early” and in fact the election is not tomorrow.

“She recognizes and understands that she is on the ballot in 2010 and will be held accountable for her work and looks forward to the campaign,” Patterson said. “She looks forward to the opportunity to interact with Arkansas voters.”

The question, “Do you approve of the job the Arkansas state Legislature is doing?” drew these responses: Strongly approve, 8 percent; somewhat approve, 50 percent; somewhat disapprove, 20 percent; strongly disapprove, 11 percent.

When asked, “Do you approve or disapprove of the job that President Barack Obama is doing?” 21 percent said they strongly approve, 21 percent said they somewhat approve, 11 percent said they somewhat disapprove, 43 percent said they strongly disapprove and 4 percent said they did not know.

When asked whether they would say the country is headed in the right direction or has gone off track, 27 percent said it is headed in the right direction, 65 percent said it is on the wrong track and 9 percent did not know.

The question, “How would you describe the Arkansas economy?” drew these responses: Strong and growing, 8 percent; in a recovery, 19 percent; slightly on the downside, 36 percent; approaching recession, 7 percent; in a recession, 22 percent; depression, 3 percent; don’t know, 5 percent.

Respondents also were asked whether they thought they would be better off, worse off or about the same a year from now. Responses were: Better off, 22 percent; worse off, 28 percent; about the same, 47 percent; don’t know, 3 percent.

Assisting in constructing the poll were Democratic strategist Robert McLarty of The Markham Group and Republican strategist Clint Reed of The Political Firm.
McLarty and Reed said the poll indicates a divide between Arkansas’ feelings about state politics and national politics.

“The center is king here, and this explains why politics in D.C. are not liked — as D.C. has become increasingly more partisan and more combative, things at the state Capitol are calmer and more productive than ever,” McLarty said. “The juxtaposition of the leadership we are seeing in the Beebe administration versus what Arkansans view as business as usual in Washington is truly striking.”

Beebe endorsed Obama for president and campaigned for him in Arkansas. Beebe is “still fully behind the president,” DeCample said today.

“Arkansas is a retail politics state, and the people of Arkansas have a lot more direct interaction … or relation to the governor, and I think that does a lot to sway people and to win their approval,” DeCample said.

Reed said the poll suggests that Beebe is unbeatable but that Lincoln “could be the most vulnerable Democratic candidate on the 2010 ballot.”

Lincoln’s 49 percent approval rating “understates base voting blocks that have consistently supported Sen. Lincoln (i.e., Democrats, women, African-Americans, 1st Congressional District),” Reed said. “However, this should not take away from a consistent pattern showing her underperforming as an incumbent U.S. senator. She has one good piece of data: Money in the bank.”

Lincoln reported last month her campaign had $3.2 million in cash on hand. She is seeking a third term in office in the 2010 election.

Republicans who have said they will seek the GOP nomination to challenge Lincoln next year include state Sen. Kim Hendren of Gravette, retired Army Col. Conrad Reynolds of Conway, businessman Fred Ramey of Searcy, businessman Tom Cox of North Little Rock and businessman Curtis Coleman of Little Rock.

No Republican candidate has yet emerged to challenge Beebe’s 2010 re-election bid.

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