Arkansas Us Senate 2010 Analysis
-DC Monthly Political View -August 20, 2009 – Republican Party Chairman Michael Steele’s instructions today to the State GOP about strategies on how deal with independent US Senate office seeker Trevor Drown have many local republicans unhappy. Steele, in Little Rock today, met with Doyle Webb and other members of party leadership. First item on the agenda: secure the US Senate seat held by democrat Blanche Lincoln. Polls show Lincoln, who is running for her third term has little to no support across all groups. Normally this would provide the GOP the ability to pick up a senate seat. But there are problems. The first is a major negative view across the state for republicans. The current 5 to 8 possible candidates include everyone from a ultra-conservative who has ties to former Governor Huckabee to a recently retired Army Colonel. In between a tea party boat builder, a FedEx driver/real estate investor and a few other odds and ends who are still deciding. Adding to their problems are continuous racist comments, and a lack of focus. There is also concern the state party is in the red, and may be in financial trouble with a net loss of $108,000 in the last 12 months
Another key player in this election will be the Green Party. The past three Federal elections, Greens have done something Republican’s have not done. Provide a candidate to run against the incumbent. This continues to be a problem statewide as republicans fail to recruit anyone at various state level and higher offices to run including taking on the very popular Governor Beebe. Failure to provide someone this time could result in the Republican Party downgraded to a minor party. This will result in the loss of an automatic position on the 2012 ballot for all republicans and the will have to gather 2,000 to 10,000 signatures to even get on the ballot.
Speaking of signatures, according to inside sources present at the meeting, Michael Steele named former Green Beret Trevor Drown, the number one threat to the Republican Party. He has the looks, brains, leadership style and the support of the people in Arkansas. A grassroots movement, already underway has worried many GOP leaders since it is expected he will easily get the required 10,000 signatures by May 2010. When it was discovered members of party leadership had tried to recruit Drown and he turned him down, heads were shaking and many at the meeting heard Steele mumble that was “bad, very bad.” Things got a little heated when it was mentioned once he had turned them down; members of the party attempted to discredit Drown. These two also hold statewide offices and combined their efforts with a local blogger to discredit Drown.
One staffer from the GOP D.C. office was heard to say, this is what is wrong with you people. You still think this is the 19th century. You need to ignore, him, never mention his name never acknowledge him. If you recognize his existence you elevate him to our level. The need to take him out will happen only if he gets the signatures next May.
There were a few moderate republicans unhappy with how the state party has handled the Drown affair. Targeting a veteran of the Global War on terror did not sit well with them. Internally, party support is already waning and infighting is increases daily due to the GOP’s silent nod of approval already given to Curtis Coleman.
The greatest cause for concern was the sudden interest in Drown from the left. Down with Tyranny, a renowned west coast blogger on liberal values has interviewed and written four articles in the last week, praising Drown’s credentials, open mind and honest talk. The ties between Down with Tyranny and ActBlue, the online clearing house for Democrat Action, are well known. No fan of Senator Blanche Lincoln’s stance on health care and card check in the last 72 hours ActBlue has raised over $300,000 from its supporters to support their various candidates.
This next election could be the start of a rising force in this country, the Independent. Arkansas will be one of the battleground states. When one looks at the numbers and realizes only 55,000 registered voters are democrats, 45,000 republicans and the remaining 1.6 million are registered as optional or independents, political strategists know it is time to worry. The political winds are changing in Arkansas. Consequently, we are predicting that Trevor Drown looks like the strongest contender at this point.