By David J. Sanders

So why would state Sen. Bob Johnson, the term-limited president pro tem of the Arkansas state Senate, consider challenging U.S. Sen. Blanche Lincoln in what would be a tough battle for the Democratic Party’s nomination?

It’s simple really. He believes that her political weakness is so profound that she could be defeated next year – even in a primary. And, just because he is a Democrat, Johnson feels that he shouldn’t be precluded from challenging her.

Johnson is part political analyst, part would-be candidate.

“It’s a remarkable time,” he said. “You don’t have to do what you would typically have to do in order to unseat an incumbent, and that is drive their negatives up.” He pointed out that polling has shown that Lincoln is in worse shape than former Republican U.S. Sen. Tim Hutchinson was a year and a half before he was defeated by then-Attorney General Mark Pryor in the 2002 general election.

“People have already concluded that her negatives are what they are, so you don’t have to uncrown the queen,” he claimed. Johnson has concluded that part of Lincoln’s electoral troubles stem from the fact that she’s never become  an adored Arkansas politician, like many of her predecessors who served in the U.S. Senate.

“Going to Washington doesn’t mean you have to stop being who you are — that is part of the problem, which adds to the pretentious phony-isms we get out of D.C.,” he said. “People don’t like functionaries.”

But, Johnson also observes the obvious. Her situation, he said, has been made worse by the fact that voters have become openly hostile to Washington incumbents.

“Sometimes candidates just get into a death spiral – an inverted roll – and can’t pull out of it,” he said. According to Johnson, Lincoln is caught up in a much larger problem, and a lot of incumbent politicians are in her situation.

Lincoln’s campaign manager, Steve Patterson, ignored the first rule in politics, which is to never shoot down, when he responded to a reporter’s question about Johnson’s interest in the race, claiming that the conservative Democrat must have concluded that the GOP primary was “too crowded.”

“You know that they are nervous when they attack an unannounced candidate. When you come out and pull both triggers, well, that’s all I need to know,” he said, adding that he is facing a “David and Goliath situation.” “Why would Goliath feel the need to kick sand in David’s face? They are a bunch of nervous Nellies over there.”

Johnson said the prospect of beating her would be a long shot at best. He knows that while she may be trouble politically, she is also a powerful member of the Senate Finance Committee and would be able to outspend him.

But he offered this prediction: “She’ll have a hard time pinning me down as a predictable public servant. In Arkansas, I haven’t been predictable on anything, except to do what I thought was right.”

In fact, political success, according to Johnson, comes from being predictably unpredictable.

Ten years ago, much to the trial lawyers’ chagrin, he led the charge on the state’s tort reform legislation, upsetting the traditional Democratic constituency. He battled against Gov. Mike Huckabee’s program to spend the state’s share of the tobacco settlement dollars, but later helped the Republican governor pass a highway bond deal.

More recently, Johnson angered the local water utility and environmentalists by defending what he claims were the rights of landowners to have control over their private property, even on a watershed. He lost that one on the grounds that it became about protecting clean water. But later he saw to it, through a $4 million appropriation, that the landowners would begin to be fairly compensated for their property, while leaving the watershed protected.

This year, he helped Gov. Mike Beebe pass his tobacco tax to fund a statewide trauma system and new health care spending, but was the only person who stood up to Beebe on the budget.

Will he run? Who knows? But he is unpredictable, which is why Lincoln should be worried.

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David J. Sanders writes twice weekly for the Arkansas News Bureau in Little Rock and is the host of Arkansas Education Television Network’s “Unconventional Wisdom.” His e-mail address is DavidJSanders@aol.com.