By Jeremy Peppas
Stephens Media

NORTH LITTLE ROCK — State emergency officials say the occurrence of a major disaster is not a matter of if, but when. Their message to Arkansans: Be prepared.

Meeting with reporters today, state Emergency Management Department Director David Maxwell said the agency is gearing up for a “national level exercise” in May 2011 with other states and federal agencies based on a model of an earthquake measuring 7.7 on the Richter scale along the New Madrid fault in eastern Arkansas.

“We are preparing for a catastrophic earthquake. The potential, the amount of damage. You have a lot involved,” Maxwell said.

The goal is not to “hype this,” he said. “We are just saying it is going to happen one day.”

ADEM urged Arkansas to be prepared with emergency kits for an earthquake or other major disasters from tornadoes to ice storms.

Sheila Annable, director of ADEM’s preparedness division, said the earthquake model estimates hundreds of deaths, nearly 14,000 serious injuries and some 127,000 would be left homeless in Arkansas if a major quake occurred along the New Madrid.

Among the concerns expressed by Maxwell and Annable would be disruption to the natural gas lines that supply much of the northeastern United States with fuel for winter heating.

Also, the national electric grid might be knocked off line, causing a black out from coast-to-coast, along with bridges crossing the Mississippi River that could cause national transportation problems.

Then you have liquefaction.

That’s where shaking associated with earthquakes spreads across the soil and causes the rich farmland of the Delta to become what Annable called “quicksand.” The soil becomes more sand and cannot be farmed.

With Arkansas as the No. 1 producer of rice in the nation, a New Madrid earthquake could disrupt the global food chain, Annable said.

Another pressing concern of liquefaction is that the land could no longer support the roadbeds, making evacuation by vehicle nearly impossible.