By John Brummett
To promote his fledgling magazine, Talk Business Quarterly, all-purpose media guy Roby Brock in Little Rock spent last week in a slow roll-out of polling data.
He was trying to milk some general attention, a little buzz, from his investment in a broadly inquiring survey of 600 likely voters in Arkansas.
For partisan cover, he used both a Democratic political consultant, Robert McLarty, and a Republican one, Clint Reed, to help frame and phrase the questions.
Being a sucker for such things, I take the bait. I’d like now to analyze the data.
First there was the poll section showing that Arkansawyers are evenly divided on whether they like or dislike our new lottery and that 57 percent of respondents said they were unlikely to play it.
That is altogether pointless, I must say. We already approved a lottery; whether we like or dislike the concept is irrelevant to the raging new practice.
And we must consider this: If 57 percent of the people won’t play the lottery, then 43 percent of a state population of 2.8 million would raise a heap of money for college scholarships. And that’s not even counting those driving over from bordering states.
The next finding — that half the respondents think Bill Clinton was an outstanding or above average president and that 68 percent think his presidential library is good for Arkansas — surprises me only in part.
Of course the library has been good for Arkansas; it’s a vibrant and stimulating place that is responsible even for a little economic development. But that Clinton continues to enjoy such good will in what is a reddening state, even after all that’s been said about him and done to him, not to mention what he’s occasionally done to himself — it shows a favorite-son affinity and sustaining bond stronger than I had thought.
Next in the poll was this: Blanche Lincoln is in a political fix and the people of Arkansas don’t want a government health insurer even as they live off Medicare, Medicaid, ARKids First, and veteran’s health care.
This poll had Lincoln’s negative rating higher than her positive, 42 percent to 46 percent. Her standing has actually worsened since she became chairman of the Senate Agriculture Committee, an ascendance that one pundit, now discredited, said would resurrect her languishing political fortunes.
It may become incumbent upon Gov. Mike Beebe to announce for this Senate seat to pre-empt its Republicanization and open the Governor’s Mansion to Mike Ross, Dustin McDaniel or Bill Halter.
I’m kidding. Well, I’m not kidding conceptually. But Beebe’s not going to do that. He eats up being governor.
We could have 15 people in this Senate melee before we’re done. For now, I’m mostly interested in whether Blanche might get squeezed in her own primary both from the right, in state Sen. Bob Johnson, and left, in the aforementioned Halter, the lieutenant governor.
Brock managed to phrase a fairly relevant health care question. It was whether a respondent, even if preferring his own private health insurance, would object to the mere existence of a public option.
And the people of Arkansas spoke: 54 percent said they didn’t want the public option to exist even if it had nothing to do with them.
This is why Lincoln and Ross act the way they do.
Finally, the poll checked the favorable and unfavorable ratings for those three in the Future Governors Club — Ross, McDaniel and Halter. Halter has the lowest “strong favorable” rating of the three and the highest “strong unfavorable.”
Maybe he ought to go ahead and pick his fight with Blanche.
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John Brummett is a columnist for the Arkansas News Bureau in Little Rock. His e-mail address is jbrummett@arkansasnews.com; his telephone number is (501) 374-0699.
