By Rob Moritz
Arkansas News Bureau

LITTLE ROCK — Despite the recession, most Arkansans think the state is headed in the right direction, and think they are as good or better off financially from a year ago and will be as good or better off next year as now, results of the 11th annual Arkansas Poll released today showed.

In politics, results of the University of Arkansas poll tracked other recent surveys showing U.S. Sen. Blanche Lincoln, D-Ark., with falling popularity as she gears up her 2010 re-election bid, though it also showed Arkansans largely detached from news about the race for her seat more than a year before balloting.

Respondents were about evenly split on whether proposed health care reform would improve or hurt their quality of care. More than half of uninsured residents favor creation of a government health care plan to compete with private insurers, while just under half with health insurance oppose a public option, the poll showed.

Overall, 39 percent support a public option, 48 percent oppose the idea.
“Clearly, Arkansans aren’t yet sold on the need for health care reform, at least in terms of the public option that’s dominated the debate so far,” said Janine Parry, the poll’s director and an associate professor of political science at the university.

“It won’t surprise most folks to also see that those who are uninsured, only about 15 percent of our sample, are the most interested in change,” Parry said. “The rest of us, apparently, are afraid of losing what we’ve got.”

The university’s Survey Research Center randomly surveyed 754 Arkansans by telephone — 18 percent via cell phone — between Oct. 14 and Oct. 28. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Among the results:
—72 percent said the state is going in the right direction; 16 percent thought the state is going in the wrong direction; 12 percent did not know or refused to answer.
—68 percent said they were as good or better off financially from a year ago, while 31 percent said they were worse off.
—80 percent thought they would be better off in a year than they are now; 17 percent thought they would be worse off in a year.
—39 percent said the economy was the most important issue; health care 16 percent; education 6 percent; government/taxes/politics 5 percent; crime 3 percent; illegal immigration 1 percent; other 30 percent.
—43 percent approved of Lincoln’s job performance, compared to 46 percent in 1999, 55 percent as recently as 2005 and 54 percent a year ago; 34 percent said they disapproved of the senator’s job performance.
—Asked to describe how closely they followed news about the U.S. Senate candidates, 76 percent said “not too closely” or “not at all closely;” 6 percent said they followed the race “very closely” and 17 percent “fairly closely.”