By Harry King
LITTLE ROCK — Until the expert corrected himself, his number on the Liberty Bowl tempted somebody who had not wagered on a football game since sweating the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl IV.
A conversation about the whys and wherefores of Southeastern Conference teams being favored in seven of 10 bowl games ambled about before turning to specifics of Arkansas-East Carolina. Asked if he thought the game would be high scoring, Jay Rood, director of the MGM Mirage sports book in Las Vegas, said it would be a while before he posted a number for total points in each of the bowl game. But, he said, he had 34 in mind for the game in Memphis.
Figuring the Razorbacks would score that on their own and knowing that the Arkansas defense is prone to give up big plays, the man doing the asking joked about a wire transfer of funds. Rood said he meant 64.
Generally, he said, SEC teams get the nod because of the quality of competition.
He did not name names, but East Carolina’s division of Conference USA includes the University of Central Florida, Southern Miss, Marshall, Alabama-Birmingham, and Memphis, while Arkansas is in a division with Alabama, LSU, Ole Miss, Auburn, and Mississippi State.
Merely listing the schools supports Rood’s hypothesis.
The Razorbacks are favored by eight points, same as Auburn against Northwestern. Among the SEC teams, only Florida is a bigger favorite. Rood made the Gators a 10-point choice over Cincinnati, although he admitted the Gators could “flatten out” like Alabama did last year against Utah after losing the SEC championship game.
The line was posted before Brian Kelly took the Notre Dame job, but Rood said he might make the spread even higher if Kelly left the Bearcats.
Once Alabama-Texas was official, Rood shaded the line toward the low side and favored the Crimson Tide by 4 1-2 points. Immediately, gamblers jumped on Alabama, pushing the line up a point.
“A lot of that was based on what happened, Alabama looking so good against a superior opponent and Texas looking so average against a decent opponent,” he said. The caution flag is the month between the league championship games and the national title contest, he said.
Alabama should be favored, he said, because of its ability to run the ball. “That doesn’t go away and you don’t have as much rust as in the passing game,” he said. “Texas might have timing issues.”
Favoring Auburn, Ole Miss, South Carolina, and Georgia made sense, but Penn State by a field goal over LSU?
“The first thing that popped into my mind was that butcher job on that Ole Miss game,” Rood said, referring to the clock management fiasco that was supposed to deflate the Tigers prior to Arkansas. Some early wagering on LSU has moved the line and there may be more action on the Tigers, he said.
Some of that could be players who believe that the SEC is head and shoulders above all others and blindly bet on teams from the league.
Alabama-Texas, plus the Sugar, Rose, Orange, and Fiesta bowls get the most attention from Rood because the BCS games get the bulk of the wagers. But, none of the other 29 games get short-shrift. Sharp players, he said, will unload if they perceive a bad number, he said.
Like 34 for the over-under on Arkansas-East Carolina.
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Harry King is sports columnist for Stephens Media’s Arkansas News Bureau. His e-mail address is hking@arkansasnews.com.
