By Jason Tolbert

Arkansas often is called the bluest red state, but will the moniker hold?

The Natural State has voted for the Republican nominee in six of the last eight presidential elections. The two exceptions were in 1992 and 1996 when former Gov. Bill Clinton was the Democratic nominee. At the same time, Democrats hold both U.S. Senate seats, three out of four U.S. House of Representative seats, every state constitutional office, and the overwhelming majority of seats in the state Legislature. How have Democrats done it and will be the year for Arkansas Republicans to make some gains?

Republicans saw some success in the 1990’s when Gov. Mike Huckabee won first the lieutenant governor’s office, then the governor’s office, and Tim Hutchinson won the U.S. Senate race in 1996 after federal races in 2008. However, 2010 brings a new degree of hope — even for races most Republicans once deemed unwinnable.

Perhaps the highest profile is the U.S. Senate race. Just last year no Republican wanted to run against Sen. Mark Pryor, but a growing crowd of Republicans want to take on Sen. Blanche Lincoln this time around.

“Folks in Arkansas are alert to what is going on in Washington D.C.,” explained Republican state Sen. Gilbert Baker, who is considered by most to be the front-runner in the Republican Senate primary. “People do not believe our representatives are looking out for our values.”

In the 1st District in eastern Arkansas, Rick Crawford is hoping to take a seat that Republicans have not held since Reconstruction. Rep. Marion Berry, a Democrat, is the incumbent.

“The interest we are seeing across the state is fueled by the fundamental shift in the direction of the country,” said Crawford. “The 1st District, although historically Democratic, is very conservative and people here are seeing a departure from these conservative Arkansas values.”

Republican Tim Griffin, who seeks to win the 2nd District for Republicans for the first time in a couple of decades, hits on the same theme.  Incumbent Democrat Vic Snyder is seeking re-election.

“Arkansans — regardless of party — don’t believe they are being represented in Washington. They wonder why Washington doesn’t understand that the private sector is the key to creating sustainable jobs, and why we keep spending money that we don’t have,” said Griffin. “They look at Washington and see a bunch of folks who just don’t get it.”

Perhaps looking at the poll numbers of Gov. Mike Beebe and Lincoln might best highlight the paradox of Arkansas politics. Public Policy Polling recently surveyed Arkansas and found that an overwhelming 70 percent support Gov. Beebe’s job performance, while Lincoln only earned 27 percent. This split may be attributed to the perception that Beebe is a conservative Democrat that puts Arkansas first, while — fair or not — Lincoln is tied to the growing anti-Washington, anti-incumbent sentiment in the state.

It seems the candidates’ messages reflect this reality. Crawford contends that victory in his race will not be by “beating people up with a Republican message,” but instead by “getting people to vote their conviction, which is conservative.”

Baker agrees, saying his plan is to “give voters a good solid reasonable conservative message and to put the resources behind it to get that message out.”

“Arkansans want jobs and opportunity for their kids and grandkids, and common sense conservative leadership to work for them, not against them,” says Griffin.

Will this message push Arkansas Republicans to victory with a slate of candidates conservatives can rally behind?  Time will tell, but it promises to be a year of choices.

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Jason Tolbert is an accountant and conservative political blogger. His blog — The Tolbert Report — is linked at ArkansasNews.com. His e-mail is jason@TolbertReport.com.