By John Lyon
Arkansas News Bureau
LITTLE ROCK — A new poll commissioned by the Arkansas News Bureau/Stephens Media shows U.S. Sen. Blanche Lincoln, D-Ark., in a statistical dead heat with several Republicans seeking to challenge her in this year’s election.
The poll also shows likely Democratic voters favoring Lincoln over Lt. Gov. Bill Halter and state Sen. Bob Johnson, D-Bigelow, both of whom have been mentioned as possible primary opponents of Lincoln though neither has announced as a candidate.
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. of Washington, D.C., conducted phone interviews with 625 Arkansans Monday through Wednesday. Only people who said they vote regularly in state elections were included. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.
For questions about the Democratic primary, a sub-sample of 303 likely Democratic primary voters was surveyed. The margin of error on the Democratic primary results is plus or minus 6 percent.
In a hypothetical General Election match-up between Lincoln and state Sen. Gilbert Baker, R-Conway, 39 percent of respondents said they would vote for Lincoln if the election were held today, while 43 percent said they would vote for Baker and 18 percent were undecided.
The margin separating Lincoln and Baker was within the poll’s margin of error, as it was for match-ups between Lincoln and all the GOP challengers included in the survey.
If the candidates were Lincoln and former state Sen. Jim Holt, 37 percent of respondents said they would vote for Lincoln and 43 percent said they would vote for Holt.
Holt ran against Lincoln in 2004, when she was seeking a second Senate term, and received 44 percent of the vote.
In a match-up between Lincoln and Curtis Coleman, 40 percent of respondents said they would vote for Lincoln and 39 percent said they would vote for Coleman.
If the election were between Lincoln and Conrad Reynolds, 41 percent said they would vote for Lincoln and 38 percent said they would vote for Reynolds.
If Lincoln and Hendren were their parties’ nominees, 43 percent said they would vote for Lincoln and 38 percent said they would vote for Hendren.
Given a choice between Lincoln and Tom Cox, 41 percent said they would vote for Lincoln and 38 percent said they would vote for Cox.
“The one constant number that runs through that whole group of questions is how Blanche Lincoln is stuck at about 40 percent,” said J. Brad Coker, managing partner of Mason-Dixon.
“If we stopped the game today and held the election even though nobody knows who all the Republicans are, I think she’d be hard-pressed to get 45 percent of the vote,” Coker said.
“Our Republican candidates are relatively unknown; however they are still ahead of Lincoln in the eyes of Arkansans,” said Chase Duggar, executive director of the state Republican Party.
“This poll points to the overwhelming fact that since Lincoln has consistently failed to vote for Arkansas views and values, her constituents are going to return the favor and elect a Republican to take office to the U.S. Senate come November.”
Lincoln spokeswoman Katie Laning Niebaum said the poll is only a snapshot in time, and the election is still 10 months away.
“We’re going to get to have a campaign,” Neibaum said. “You’ve seen the barrage of ads that have flooded our state. There’s been more than $6 million worth of advertising on health care alone since August, and most of it’s been negative. Sen. Lincoln hasn’t placed a single ad, and yet her name and photo appeared in almost every one of the ads we’ve seen.
“Sen. Lincoln has run in difficult environments before. She’s a tough and smart campaigner, and she’s going to continue to fight for Arkansas. She does not take this job for granted.”
Lincoln came out on top in the hypothetical primary match-ups. Asked who they would vote for in the Democratic primary if the candidates were Lincoln and Halter, 52 percent of likely primary voters said they would vote for Lincoln and 34 percent said they would vote for Halter.
If the candidates were Lincoln and Johnson, 63 percent said they would vote for Lincoln and 22 percent said they would vote for Johnson.
“Democrats support health care, they’re more supportive of what her voting record is in Washington, and they’re used to voting for her. So that’s not terribly surprising,” Coker said.
Johnson is not very well known, Coker said. Halter, who successfully pushed for passage of a 2008 constitutional amendment to create a state lottery to fund college scholarships, is better known, but Lincoln still has a leg up, Coker said.
“It’s going to be hard to take her out in the primary,” he said. “She will be able to outspend anybody 3-1, and she doesn’t have to worry about the conservative grassroots coming over into the Democratic primary.”
