Another Thursday morning, another Arkansas loss to dissect.
This time, the Razorbacks played better than they did at LSU last week. But it didn’t really matter. Arkansas suffered an 80-73 loss to the 16th-ranked Volunteers and picked up its fourth straight loss. It’s also the fifth in the last six games for a team that was once 6-3 in Southeastern Conference play.
Now Arkansas limps home at 14-16, 7-8 in the SEC with one game remaining in the regular season. Amazingly, the Razorbacks still have a chance to finish second in the SEC West and receive a first-round bye in next week’s SEC Tournament. To do so, the Hogs must beat Ole Miss in Bud Walton Arena on Saturday afternoon.
But let’s be honest: Wrapping up the N0. 2 seed won’t take the bad taste out of the mouths of many Arkansas fans thanks to this late-season slide. At one point, the Razorbacks appeared capable of winning the SEC West title for the first time since 1995. Now, their chances of getting a spot in the NIT field look very, very slim.
I’ve got a few unflattering facts to share that will surely make Arkansas fans groan:
• Arkansas’ loss to Tennessee means the Razorbacks will finish below .500 in the regular season for the second straight season. Not only that, it is now the fourth time in the past eight seasons — dating back to 2002-03 — Arkansas has finished the regular season below .500.
• If the Razorbacks don’t win their regular season finale and make a run in the SEC Tourney to finish .500 or better, it will be the fifth time in nine years they have finished the entire season below .500. Arkansas went 14-14 in the regular season in 2001-02 (Richardson’s last) then lost an SEC Tourney game to end up 14-15.
• Arkansas’ loss to Volunteers assures the Razorbacks of finishing no better than 8-8 in SEC play. That means Arkansas has finished above .500 in SEC play only two times in the past nine years. Those two years were 2006 (10-6) and 2008 (9-7).
• The Nolan Richardson era ended when the coach was fired near the end of the 2001-02 season. Since then, Arkansas has compiled a 133-115 record under coaches Stan Heath and John Pelphrey. Even worse, Arkansas’ record in SEC games during that eight-year span is 49-78.
As I mentioned above, Arkansas (7-8) must beat Ole Miss (7-7) on Saturday if it wants to finish second in the SEC West and earn a first-round bye in the SEC Tournament. Strangely, Ole Miss could enter the game with a chance to win a share of the SEC West title thanks to Mississippi State’s (9-6) loss to Auburn on Thursday night as well. If the Rebels beat LSU (tonight) and Arkansas (Saturday), plus get a Mississippi State loss to Tennessee on Saturday, it shares the championship.
But back to Arkansas. Not only are the Razorbacks in danger of losing the No. 2 seed and first-round bye with a loss to Ole Miss, they could also fall all the way to the No. 4 slot in the SEC West depending on what happens in one other game Saturday. Auburn (6-9) has crawled back into the picture for the third seed thanks to a pair of wins against LSU and MSU. If Arkansas loses to Ole Miss and falls to 7-9 and Auburn beats Alabama on Saturday to improve to 7-9, the teams will be tied for third. The Tigers would be awarded the third seed for the tournament thanks to the SEC’s two team tie-breaker policies.
What are those? Good question. Here’s a rundown:
A: Won-lost results of head-to-head competition between the two teams. B: Division won-lost record of the two teams (10). C: Won-lost record of the two teams vs. the No. 1 seed in their division (and proceeding through the No. 6 seed, if necessary). D: Non-division won-lost record of the two teams (six games). E: Won-lost record of the two teams vs. the No. 1 seed in the opposite division (and proceeding through the No. 6 seed, if necessary). F: Coin flip by the Commissioner.
As far as A goes, Arkansas and Auburn split their season series. On to B, Auburn would improve to 6-4 against SEC West teams if it beats Alabama to improve to 7-9 on Saturday. If Arkansas falls to 7-9 in league play with a loss to Ole Miss, it would also fall to 5-5 against division foes. So Auburn would get the tie-breaker.
It’s dizzying, I know. I’ll take a closer look at all of Arkansas’ possibilities (and who the Hogs could end up playing – and needing to beat – in the SEC Tournament) on Friday, when the scenarios for the Razorbacks will be much more clear after the Ole Miss-LSU game gets in the books.
But either way you examine it, the fact of the matter is this: Arkansas has painted itself into a corner thanks to its late-season slide. Playing in either the NCAA Tournament or NIT will take an amazing feat – winning several games against opponents like Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee or Florida next week.








