By Harry King
LITTLE ROCK — Crowing over a 12-5 or 11-6 surprise in the NCAA Tournament is enjoyed most when embellished with some research to support the pick.
Maybe something about the 3-point prowess of an individual or a team’s ineptness at the free throw line in the final minutes.
Filling out the bracket, there was a want-to pick 10th-seeded Saint Mary’s over No. 7 Richmond, but the justification was pretty lame. Nobody wants to hear the explanation that a friend knows the father of assistant coach Kyle Smith well enough to call Smith’s son “Little Rocco” or that Smith raved about the local hospitality when the Gaels played in the NCAA in North Little Rock.
Come to find out, Saint Mary’s over Richmond would not be an upset. A friend at the MGM Mirage sports book in Las Vegas shared the betting line on all 32 first-round games and his info made it clear that the term upset will be erroneously applied to results this week. For instance, Saint Mary’s is a slight favorite.
According to the people who know a bit more about teams’ strengths and weaknesses than the NCAA selection committee, No. 11 Minnesota is dead even with No. 6 Xavier; ditto for No. 10 Georgia Tech, No. 7 Oklahoma State, and No. 9 Florida State, No. 8 Gonzaga. In addition, a No. 9 is favored and the margin is two points or less in four games involving No. 10, 11, or 12 seeds.
Picking a double-digit seed is worth a stab, particularly if bonus points are involved, and the easy way out is to take all the 10s. Picking Saint Mary’s has already been justified and Missouri over Clemson is no problem because of the frenetic style of Mike Anderson’s teams. Florida over BYU is a vote for the Eastern Division of the SEC and Georgia Tech over Oklahoma State is for the symmetry of four of a kind.
The only out-of-the-blue selection is No. 12 Cornell, partly because of touting the Ivy League champion on the radio.
Thirty of the 64 teams are from the Big East, Big 12, Atlantic Coast Conference, Big Ten, and SEC, and when the weekend is complete, all 16 survivors are likely to be from those leagues.
In a funny promo, a bracketologist explains that one of his entries is based on research, another on gut instinct, while a third is chock with sleepers, and a fourth is a compilation.
No matter which system is pursued, there are a couple of locks:
—An underdog will hit some 3s early and open a comfy lead on a favorite. When the lead begins to shrink, the team will be criticized for shooting too many 3s.
—At least a dozen teams will go four minutes or more without scoring.
—A half-dozen or more teams will erase a double-digit lead.
—A 75 percent free throw shooter will miss the front end of a one-and-one in the final 90 seconds of a close game.
—Sherron Collins of Kansas, De’Sean Butler of West Virginia, Evan Turner of Ohio State and John Wall of Kentucky will do something clutch. That’s what they do and that’s why their teams are among those with the best chance to cut down the nets in Indianapolis.
—Three, maybe all four No. 1 seeds will get to the third round. Depth is a strength with Syracuse, which can get by the first two rounds without injured Arinze Onuaku. Duke could be in the most jeopardy if erratic Louisville beats California in the first round.
Although tournament upstarts are relished, they usually don’t last long. In one person’s bracket, Marquette and Notre Dame are the only teams outside the top 16 seeds that survive the weekend.
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Harry King is sports columnist for Stephens Media’s Arkansas News Bureau. His e-mail address is hking@arkansasnews.com.
