By Jason Tolbert

The U.S. Senate race in Arkansas is quickly becoming one of the most interesting contests in the United States with heated primaries both on the Democratic and Republican sides. While the head-to-head match-up between incumbent Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln and Lt. Gov. Bill Halter is drawing national attention, the Republican Senate primary has settled down some since the filing period closed.

With eight Republican candidates and six weeks to go before the May 18 primary, we may be witnessing the calm before the storm. If this primary follows historical voting patterns, geography could be the largest factor.

Traditionally, Republican primaries are won and lost in Northwest Arkansas. The 3rd Congressional District contains close to half of the Republican primary voters. And even more concentrated than that is Benton County, with roughly a fourth of the statewide GOP turnout.

This voter makeup clearly provides a home field advantage for Congressman John Boozman. This soft-spoken Rogers optometrist and former Razorback football player has represented this district for almost a decade. As the only Arkansas Republican in Congress, he has the strongest name recognition going into the race. If there is an establishment figure in the race, Boozman is certainly it.

However, some of his opponents would argue that this is a year when such a label might actually work against him. State Rep. Gilbert Baker is one person betting on that. Baker has had an extreme makeover of sorts in the past month, transforming from what was the establishment figure to what is now an anti-Washington candidate. He has even started carrying around a $4.88 blue tarp as a prop to remind voters that Boozman voted for the Trouble Asset Relief Program (TARP) in 2008.

Baker’s uphill challenge is that he draws his support primarily from Central Arkansas. Historically the 2nd Congressional District draws about a fourth of the primary voters, and with a competitive five way race on the Democratic side it is unlikely it will draw a stronger proportion this year.

In addition, the other six candidates are all running an anti-establishment message to varying degrees and are likely to split the anti-incumbent vote. Former state Sen. Jim Holt, who also is from Northwest Arkansas and has run two unsuccessful statewide campaigns, likely will draw a sizable percentage of the far right vote.

Also, in an eight-way race several candidates will be competing for second place and a chance to face Rep. Boozman in the runoff if they can keep him from achieving the 50 percent plus one required to avoid it.

Finally, consider this one last geographic reality: Northwest Arkansas has an eight-way race for Congress that is all but certain to go to a June runoff. The 1st and 2nd Congressional districts are both likely to have a runoff as well, but in the Democratic primaries. This will set up Northwest Arkansas to have an even greater influence in the runoff and create a firewall for Boozman that will be nearly impossible for anyone else to overcome.

But this is one of those years when the traditional rules may not apply.

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Jason Tolbert is an accountant and conservative political blogger. His blog — The Tolbert Report — is linked at ArkansasNews.com. His e-mail is jason@TolbertReport.com