By John Lyon
Arkansas News Bureau

LITTLE ROCK — A new poll commissioned by the Arkansas News Bureau/Stephens Media shows U.S. Sen. Blanche Lincoln, D-Ark., with a 12-point lead over Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, the chief Democratic challenger to Lincoln’s re-election bid.

The poll, released Thursday, also shows that U.S. Rep. John Boozman of Rogers holds a commanding lead in Arkansas’ Republican U.S. Senate primary and would defeat either Lincoln or Halter if the general election were held today.

Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. of Washington D.C. conducted phone interviews Monday through Wednesday with 625 Arkansans who said they vote regularly in state elections. For questions about primary races, pollsters surveyed an over-sampling of 400 likely Democratic primary voters and 400 likely Republican primary voters.

The sample included voters in all four of the state’s congressional districts, with quotas assigned to reflect voter turnout by county. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points except on questions about the primary races, where the margin of error is plus or minus 5 percentage points.

When asked which Democratic U.S. Senate candidate they will vote for — or already did in early voting — 44 percent of likely Democratic primary voters picked Lincoln, 32 percent picked Halter, 7 percent picked D.C. Morrison and 17 percent were undecided.

The gap between Lincoln and Halter has narrowed since January, when a poll conducted by the same firm, with a 303-person sample and a 6 percentage-point margin of error, showed 52 percent of likely Democratic primary voters supported Lincoln and 34 percent supported Halter. Morrison was not included in that poll.

With Morrison now in the mix and Lincoln’s numbers sliding, a Democratic primary runoff appears “very plausible,” said J. Brad Coker, managing partner of Mason-Dixon.

“She was at 52 in the last poll, and I would have said no way, she’ll be all right, but she’s come down into the 40s and she may not be able to get up over 50 percent,” Coker said.

Among likely Republican primary voters surveyed this week, Boozman garnered 48 percent, Jim Holt 17 percent, state Sen. Gilbert Baker 11 percent, state Sen. Kim Hendren 5 percent, Conrad Reynolds 2 percent, Curtis Coleman 1 percent, other 1 percent and undecided 15 percent.

All of Boozman’s primary opponents combined received 37 percent support, well below Boozman.

“He is clearly in command,” Coker said. “The only hope that one of the other candidates has — Holt, Baker — is that he’s held under 50 (and) they get it to a runoff.”

In a hypothetical general election match-up between Boozman and Lincoln, 52 percent of respondents said they would vote for Boozman if the election were held today, while 35 percent said they would vote for Lincoln and 13 percent were undecided.

“Lincoln, even if she survives the primary, she’s in pretty deep trouble,” Coker said. “An incumbent who can only pull 35 percent of the vote against a Republican who’s never run statewide before? Not a good sign.”

If the candidates were Boozman and Halter, 56 percent said they would vote for Boozman, 32 percent picked Halter and 12 percent were undecided.

The notion that Halter would be a stronger candidate than Lincoln in the general election “doesn’t hold true” according to the numbers, Coker said.

Holt and Baker also led both Lincoln and Halter in the poll, though their leads were within the margin of error.

If Holt and Lincoln were their parties’ nominees, 45 percent of respondents said they would vote for Holt, 40 percent for Lincoln and 15 percent were undecided.

Holt ran against Lincoln in 2004, when she was seeking a second Senate term, and received 44 percent of the vote.

If the general election were between Holt and Halter, 42 percent said they would vote for Holt, 36 percent said they would vote for Halter and 22 percent were undecided.

If the race were between Baker and Lincoln, 47 percent said they would voter for Baker, 39 percent said they would vote for Lincoln and 14 percent were undecided.

Asked to choose between Baker and Halter, 42 percent picked Baker, 34 percent picked Halter and 24 percent were undecided.

Lincoln is the best known among the candidates, with 97 percent of respondents saying they recognized her name. Twenty-eight percent said they had a favorable opinion of Lincoln, 53 percent had an unfavorable opinion and 16 percent were neutral.

Lincoln’s approval rating has slipped since the January poll, which showed that 39 percent had a favorable opinion of her, 41 percent had an unfavorable opinion and 15 percent were neutral. The margin of error on that part of the January poll was plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Halter’s name was recognized by 85 percent of respondents in the new poll. Twenty-nine percent had a favorable opinion, 21 percent had an unfavorable opinion and 35 percent were neutral.

In the January poll, 28 percent had a favorable opinion of Halter, 11 percent had an unfavorable opinion and 31 percent were neutral.

Halter’s approval rating has not changed significantly since January but, like Lincoln, he has seen a higher percentage who disapprove.

Coker said the Lincoln-Halter race has been getting “pretty ugly.”
“When you have the Democrats attacking each other, then sometimes their negatives will go higher,” he said.

Boozman had 81 percent name recognition in the new poll, with 38 percent saying they had a favorable opinion of him, 11 percent an unfavorable opinion and 32 percent neutral.

Of the other GOP Senate candidates, Holt had 75 percent name recognition; Baker, 42 percent; Coleman, 30 percent; Hendren, 36 percent; Morrison, 27 percent; Reynolds, 23 percent.