By Jason Tolbert

Observing the re-election campaign of Sen. Blanche Lincoln from the outside is sort of like driving past a car wreck on the interstate. You know you should not slow down to look but you just can’t seem to help yourself.

Arkansas is getting used to Sen. Lincoln’s constant back and forth on various issues. We saw it the previous year as she wavered on her support of the Employee Free Choice Act or “Card Check.” She first co-sponsored the bill back in 2004 before finally deciding this past year that she could not support the bill in its current form.

Of course, we also saw her Hamlet-like routine on the health care bill. To filibuster or not to filibuster, that was her question. She ultimately decided not to filibuster but she did vote against the reconciliation bill that came out of the House.

The latest vacillation has been on her hot and cold relationship with President Barack Obama. In 2008, Lincoln was firmly planted in the Hillary Clinton for president camp. This is understandable as most Arkansas Democrats fit into that category. But her ultimate support for the Obama candidacy was reluctant at best.

But even afterward, she continued to maintain a degree of distance from the president, who was and still is less than popular in her home state. President Obama lost Arkansas by 20 points in 2008 and his popularity has gone down from there.

As recently as February, Sen. Lincoln’s campaign office was sending around video footage to reporters of her standing up to the president at a public town-hall-style meeting with Democratic leaders. While the whole thing seemed a bit orchestrated, she claimed that she really challenged him and implored him to seek common ground with Republicans and push back against the extremes of the Democratic Party.

However, the past week has seen a complete reversal as Lincoln is now fully embracing President Obama in her primary fight against Lt. Gov. Bill Halter. She began with a mailer showing her arm-in-arm with President Obama. “She stood with him, now he is standing with her,” touted the mail piece.

The latest is a radio ad that is running on targeted stations in Arkansas where Obama encourages Arkansans to vote for Lincoln in the upcoming primary.

“Blanche is leading the fight to hold Wall Street accountable and make sure that Arkansas taxpayers are never again asked to bailout Wall Street bankers,” said Obama in the ad. “She is standing on the side of workers who’ve lost their jobs in this recession by extending unemployment insurance payments and health care while they try to get back on their feet.”

The only explanation for this sudden cozy relationship with President Obama is that her campaign is realizing what the pundits have been saying for the past few weeks — that the race in her party primary is uncomfortably close. The latest poll by the Arkansas News Bureau showed Lincoln up 12 points on Halter, but still potentially short of the 50 percent-plus she needs to avoid a runoff, thanks to a third candidate, D.C. Morrison. Even a casual observer of Arkansas politics could tell you that President Obama’s endorsement hurts her in November, so she must be determined to pull out all the stops to try to get past the primary.

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Jason Tolbert is an accountant and conservative political blogger. His blog — The Tolbert Report — is linked at ArkansasNews.com. His e-mail is jason@TolbertReport.com