By John Lyon
Arkansas News Bureau

LITTLE ROCK — Arkansans oppose the overhaul of the nation’s health care system in slightly larger numbers than they did before it became law, a new poll shows.

The poll, commissioned by the Arkansas News Bureau/Stephens Media, found that 64 percent of respondents oppose the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, which President Obama signed into law on March 23. A similar survey conducted in January found that 58 percent opposed the measure then.

Washington D.C.-based Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. conducted telephone interviews with 625 registered Arkansas voters for both polls.

The earlier poll was conducted Jan. 18-20, and the new poll was conducted Monday through Wednesday. The margin of error in both polls is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

In the latest poll, the question “Do you support or oppose the health care reform bill approved by Congress and signed into law by President Obama?” drew these responses: 64 percent oppose, 27 percent support, 9 percent undecided.

In the January poll, the question “Do you support or oppose the health care reform legislation which could pass Congress and be signed into law by President Obama” drew these responses: 58 percent oppose, 26 percent support, 16 percent undecided.

Respondents also were asked in both polls if they approved or disapproved of the votes of Arkansas’ senators, Democrats Blanche Lincoln and Mark Pryor, in support of the measure.
Asked last week about Lincoln’s vote, 64 percent said they disapproved, 28 percent said they approved and 8 percent were not sure. In January, 59 percent disapproved, 28 percent approved and 13 percent were not sure.

Asked last week about Pryor’s vote, 62 percent said they disapproved, 28 percent said they approved and 10 percent were not sure. In January, 55 percent disapproved, 27 percent disapproved and 18 percent were not sure.

Lincoln and Pryor have predicted that Arkansans will warm to the law when they see the beneficial effects of provisions such as a ban on denying health insurance coverage because of pre-existing conditions and a ban on capping health insurance claims.

But the law has spurred controversy, particularly with a requirement that nearly every American buy health insurance.

Several attorneys general are suing the federal government over the mandate, and in Arkansas the grassroots group Secure Arkansas has filed a lawsuit challenging the constitutionality of the law.

“The benefits haven’t kicked in, so there’s really nothing out there substantive that will make people like it any more than they liked it when it passed,” said J. Brad Coker, managing partner of Mason-Dixon. “I’m not surprised by that at all.”

Gary Wekkin, a political science professor at the University of Central Arkansas in Conway, said negative advertising aimed at Lincoln, who is facing a tough re-election fight, has probably contributed to distrust of the health care law in Arkansas.

“Recent numbers indicate spending by out-of-state groups on political advertising in the Little Rock market has exceeded spending by either Sen. Lincoln or Lt. Gov. Halter,” Wekkin said. “The effect of such spending is difficult to know at this point but cannot be overlooked.”

Wekkin said Lincoln and Pryor may be right in saying the public will warm to the law, especially Democrats, but “perhaps it is too optimistic in terms of this year’s elections.”

Coker said that in the immediate future Lincoln has more cause to be concerned than Pryor, who will not be up for re-election until 2012, but Pryor’s health care vote could become an issue if the law remains unpopular.

“The real test will come first in November,” Coker said. “Then in a couple of years, if they (Arkansans) don’t see any improvement, at least in their mind, to the health care system, then I think you’re really going to see the backlash kick in.”