By Harry King
LITTLE ROCK — Other than an asterisk for Texas, there is no compelling reason for the Southeastern Conference to expand.
If the nationally prominent Longhorns were willing to share TV revenue equally, any conference would be obliged to welcome the richest athletic program in the country. But, late Monday, several media outlets reported that the Longhorns and nine other Big 12 schools had decided to stay together. Supposedly, Texas will earn $20-$25 million per year in TV revenue, including money from its own network.
The Texas A&M-to-the-SEC rumor was squelched when the school president described the Aggies as a proud member of the Big 12 and said they “will continue to be affiliated with the conference in the future.”
Remove Texas from the picture and arguments for expansion include others are doing it, TV revenue and exposure. None stand up to scrutiny.
So what if the Pac 10 adds a half dozen or the Big 10, which is already up to 12 with Nebraska, grows to 14 or the Mountain West gobbles up every Big 12 outsider? Those are simply numbers accumulated to attract TV dollars. The 12-team SEC sells just fine.
No matter how many teams are in a league, those other conferences will still be trying to field a champion that can knock off the SEC’s best. Playing Texas and-or Oklahoma won’t make Arizona a contender for the national title; ditto for Nebraska transforming Indiana.
When the Big 10 initiated the expansion talk, the jumped-to conclusion was that there would be four 16-team superconferences and that would lead to a four-team playoff. That seems unlikely.
At the moment, it appears there could be a couple of 16-team conferences west of the Mississippi River, plus the SEC, the Big 10 and whatever happens to the Atlantic Coast Conference and the Big East.
Considering how LSU, Florida and Alabama have prevailed in the last four title games, the BCS would dare not exclude the SEC, whether the league has 12 teams or 14. To do so would hold the BCS up to more ridicule than it endured for Oklahoma jumping Texas in 2008 or unbeaten Auburn being left out in 2004.
Regarding the TV money, there is a limit and it is worth remembering that the SEC is only in the second year of a 15-year deal with both ESPN and CBS. ESPN is paying about $150 million per year for SEC games beyond those that belong to CBS, which is forking over $55 million per year.
Each of the 12 schools get an equal share, something around $17 million per. Add two schools and TV has to kick in another $34 million per year just to maintain status quo; add four schools and TV’s tab goes up an additional $68 million annually.
Last week, Virginia Tech athletic director Jim Weaver said he thought the ACC would remain at 12 members. His take, shared with the Daily Press in Newport News, Va., applies to his league and all others: “Expansion just doesn’t make sense unless you can drive the revenue, and personally I don’t believe there’s enough revenue out there to be driven.”
Considering today’s economy, imagine telling for-profit ESPN that the $2.25 billion contract really needs to be $3 billion.
By the way, any school that leaves the ACC forfeits three-fourths of its share of conference revenue for that academic year. This year, that would be about $10.5 million.
Those who fret about the SEC’s saturation should note that every league game is on one ESPN platform or another. Fans of college football will find a way to watch any SEC game that is meaningful. And, they’ll tune in even if there are only 12 teams in the league.
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Harry King is sports columnist for Stephens Media’s Arkansas News Bureau. His e-mail address is hking@arkansasnews.com.
