By Jason Tolbert
The polls on the race for U.S. Senate in Arkansas have been coming out fast and furious over the past couple of weeks. They have ranged from showing U.S. Rep. John Boozman, the Republican challenger, with a 31-point lead to a 19-point lead over embattled Democratic incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln.
But the Lincoln campaign says not to worry, citing an internal poll showing the race to be much closer.
“After being subjected to over $10 million in negative advertising both before and during her primary, Sen. Blanche Lincoln currently trails Congressman John Boozman by only 9 percent,” reads the internal memo from her campaign.
Despite leading Lincoln by a nearly 2-1 margin in some polls, Boozman trails by huge margins in fundraising. In the most recent financial disclosures, Lincoln’s campaign reported raising more than $2.7 million in the second quarter with over $1.8 million cash on hand. Boozman’s campaign reported raising only around $600,000 for the same period and having less than $500,000 in the bank.
His campaign assures me not to be concerned with these fundraising numbers.
“Sen. Lincoln thinks Washington’s on the right track, and Washington insiders have rewarded her loyalty with millions in campaign contributions,” said Boozman campaign manager Sarah Huckabee Sanders. “John Boozman has been in Arkansas, understands Arkansas, raised 70 percent of his donations in Arkansas and votes with Arkansas. No amount of money or negative campaign ads will change that sharp contrast come November.”
So which is more important, having a huge lead in the polls roughly 100 days before the general election or having three times the cash to spend during those 100 days?
The answer largely depends on how the Lincoln campaign chooses to spend its big pile of money.
Other than Boozman’s huge lead, perhaps the most significant finding from the recent polls is that while Lincoln is well-known but unpopular, Boozman is largely undefined outside of his own congressional district in the Republican stronghold of Northwest Arkansas.
The true battle for the next 100 days is to define Boozman. Lincoln gave a preview of this strategy in her speech at the state Democrat Party’s Jefferson-Jackson dinner last weekend in North Little Rock.
“What does (Rep. Boozman) stand for?” asked Lincoln. “From all I can tell, he just simply wants to ‘Beat Blanche.’ That’s it. Can he tell you what he is for or what he has done? He just wants to ‘Beat Blanche.’ That’s it.”
This was the theme of the night, with keynote speaker James Carville driving home the point.
“What is this clown named Snoozeman? Snoozeman says, ‘Send me to Washington; I will sleep through the whole thing. I will go there and let Mitch McConnell tell me how to create jobs,’” joked Carville.
The question remains, how will the Lincoln campaign deliver this message, and how will the Boozman campaign combat it?
Currently, the polls reflect that the election is a referendum on Lincoln’s incumbency and she is losing in big way. Boozman has an image in his district of a soft-spoken common sense conservative. We will see if this changes.
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Jason Tolbert is an accountant and conservative political blogger. His blog — The Tolbert Report — is linked at ArkansasNews.com. His e-mail is jason@TolbertReport.com.
