By John Lyon
Arkansas News Bureau

LITTLE ROCK — Republican U.S. Senate candidate John Boozman continues to hold a 17-point lead over Democratic incumbent Blanche Lincoln, a new poll shows.

In the poll, commissioned by the Arkansas News Bureau/Stephens Media and conducted Sunday through Tuesday, 51 percent of respondents said they would vote for Boozman if the election were held today, while 34 percent said they would vote for Lincoln.

The margin between Boozman and Lincoln was unchanged from a similar poll conducted in early May, when 52 percent favored Boozman and 35 percent said they would vote for Lincoln. That match-up was hypothetical at the time because Boozman and Lincoln had not yet won their parties’ nominations.

Lincoln is seeking a third term in the Senate. Boozman, of Rogers, has represented Arkansas’ 3rd District in the U.S. House since 2001.

Also in this week’s poll, 3 percent of respondents said they would vote for independent candidate Trevor Drown, 1 percent favored Green Party candidate John Gray and 11 percent were undecided. Drown and Gray were not included in the earlier poll.

Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. of Washington, D.C., conducted phone interviews with 625 likely Arkansas voters for both polls. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points for each poll.

The poll “confirms my own sense that there’s just not been any movement in the race,” said Hall Bass, a political science professor at Ouachita Baptist University.

Bass said it appears the electorate simply has not been responding to Lincoln’s campaign.

“The assets that she brings to the table, and they’re considerable, just don’t seem to have much resonance in this particular campaign environment,” he said.

When asked for their opinions of the candidates, 43 percent of respondents in this week’s poll said they had a favorable opinion of Boozman, 22 percent had an unfavorable opinion, 27 percent were neutral and 8 percent did not recognize the name.

In May, 38 percent of respondents had a favorable opinion of Boozman, 11 percent had an unfavorable opinion, 32 percent were neutral and 19 percent did not recognize the name.

When respondents in this week’s poll were asked for their opinion of Lincoln, the results were: 30 percent favorable, 47 percent unfavorable and 23 percent neutral. All of the respondents recognized Lincoln’s name.

In the May poll, 28 percent of respondents said they had a favorable opinion of Lincoln, 53 percent had an unfavorable opinion, 16 percent were neutral and 3 percent did not recognize the name.

Lincoln has criticized Boozman for his co-sponsorship of a bill to replace the federal income tax with a national sales tax and his support of allowing workers to divert part of their payroll tax from Social Security and Medicaid to individual investment accounts. She has also knocked Boozman for joining other House Republicans in a moratorium on earmarks.

Boozman has criticized Lincoln for supporting the federal health care overhaul and the federal stimulus program, among other things.

Bass said the doubling of Boozman’s unfavorable numbers since May suggests that Lincoln “has had some success in defining him, but not enough.”

“At this point I would be surprised if she can turn the race around,” Bass said. “Not that it’s impossible, not that things can’t happen, but it just seems to me that what your poll indicates is that the basic foundations of the campaign are pretty well established.”

Boozman’s campaign declined Wednesday to comment on the poll. Steve Patterson, Lincoln’s campaign manager, said a poll is just “a snapshot” of a moment.

“We understand that Congressman Boozman is projected as a favorite in the race and Sen. Lincoln is the underdog,” Patterson said. “But I think she and her campaign are energized by events of the last week to 10 days, and we feel like we’re in a race to the finish.”

Patterson said Lincoln’s challenge is to help focus voters on the choice they have.

“This isn’t a referendum on anybody else or any national party or trend or narrative,” he said. “This is a choice between a couple of candidates who have a proven record, and they (voters) have a choice.

“She’s the chairman of the (Senate) Agriculture Committee, which can be an extremely beneficial economic benefit to the state at a time when we’re trying to climb out of this recession. It’s a great asset for the state to have, and we believe that she’s the one who’s actually out there fighting for jobs.”