By Rob Moritz
Arkansas News Bureau

LITTLE ROCK — Incumbent Democrat Mike Beebe holds a 21-point lead over Republican challenger Jim Keet in the governor’s race, results of a new poll show.

The race for lieutenant governor between Democrat Shane Broadway and Republican Mark Darr is a virtual dead heat, according to the poll commissioned by the Arkansas News Bureau/Stephens Media.

Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. of Washington D.C., surveyed 625 likely Arkansas voters by telephone Sunday through Tuesday. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

In the governor’s race, results showed Beebe leading Keet, 54 percent to 33 percent, with 2 percent favoring Green Party candidate Jim Lendall and 11 percent undecided.

“Anytime an incumbent is running over 50 percent their re-election chances are pretty solid,” said J. Brad Coker, managing partner for Mason-Dixon, adding that Beebe “is the incumbent, he is popular, he hasn’t done anything on the state level that comes close to what the Democrats are doing in Washington.”

“We’ve seen some Democratic governors stay very popular in … conservative states and even in the face of some anti-Democratic mood,” Coker said. “In the voter’s eyes, (Beebe) has done a good job and hasn’t done the sort of things that the Democrats in Washington have done.”

Anne Hughes, spokeswoman for Beebe’s campaign, said Thursday that Beebe was pleased the see the poll results but had no plans to rest on his laurels.
“It’s always gratifying to see those kinds of numbers but the only poll that matters is the one on election day and that’s where our focus remains,” Hughes said.

In the lieutenant governor’s race, Broadway leads with 36 percent to Darr’s 34 percent, with 30 percent undecided. Republican Mark Martin leads Democrat Pat O’Brien 45 percent to 34 percent in the race for secretary of state, with 21 percent undecided.

Coker said those two races show the advantage of being a Republican this year.

“There is definitely a national effect in Arkansas right now,” Coker said, noting that traditionally Arkansas voters favor Democrats at the state level.

“The trend now is more Republican than it has been, at least in recent years,” he said. “But, Arkansas went for (John) McCain, a Republican, in the last presidential election, so it’s not like Arkansas is a lockdown Democratic state. I just think there’s not a lot of support for what the president is doing and the Democratic Congress is doing.”

While the lieutenant governor’s race appears close, Coker said he expects a majority of the 30 percent undecided to end up voting Republican in the Nov. 2 general election.

“That’s just my opinion, but based on what I’m seeing in a lot of places and what the national polls seems to be indicating,” he said. “All things being equal, I think more of those undecided voters will vote Republican rather than Democrat.”

Both Broadway and Darr said Thursday that their goal between now and November is to target the undecided.

“We feel good around our campaign,” Broadway said. “We have a good strategy and message that we think is resonating with Arkansas voters.”

“The key for us is reaching out to those voters, regardless of whether they are Republican, Democrat or Independent,” Darr said. “We have to get the issues to them. That is our focus.”

In the secretary of state’s race, Coker wondered whether some of the voters may have Martin confused with the popular and successful race car driver of the same name from Batesville.

“It never hurts to have the same name of a popular sports personality,” he said. “Most people will know there’s a difference, but you know you’ve always got that 10 percent who shows up on election day without a clue.”

Martin said he was pleased with the results.

“I’m flattered I’m running ahead,” he said. “As I get my message out about free and fair elections, I think we may even see those numbers open more.”

O’Brien said the election is about choice and as voters learn about the differences between he and his opponent they will support him.

“When the choice is made clear to voters we will prevail,” he said.