By John Lyon
Arkansas News Bureau

LITTLE ROCK — Republican U.S. Senate candidate John Boozman holds a 21-point lead over Democratic incumbent Blanche Lincoln as one of the most watched races in the nation enters its final weeks, results of a new Arkansas News Bureau/Stephens Media poll show.

Boozman garnered 55 percent support to 34 percent for Lincoln in the poll released today. Of the two other Senate candidates in the Nov. 2 general election, 4 percent of respondants favored independent candidate Trevor Drown and 2 percent said they would vote for Green Party candidate John Gray. Five percent were undecided.

Mason-Dixon Polling & Research of Washington, D.C., conducted phone interviews with 625 likely voters statewide Friday through Tuesday. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

“I think you can kind of put that one in the bag” for Boozman, said Mason-Dixon managing partner J. Brad Coker. He called Boozman’s lead “insurmountable.”

The results suggests Boozman’s lead has widened since a Mason-Dixon poll conducted in September showed the 3rd District congressman with a 17-point lead over the two-term incumbent.

Lincoln’s campaign said today that other recent polls have shown Lincoln gaining ground.

“As an underdog in this campaign, Sen. Lincoln is not measuring her success on the polls. However, this poll runs counter to other recent polls which show the race narrowing,” campaign spokeswoman Katie Laning Niebaum said.

A roundup of polls on the website Real Clear Politics showed Boozman with an average lead of 15.3 percentage points as of today.

Niebaum said whatever the polls show, Lincoln’s success “will be determined finally by actual voters on Nov. 2.”

Boozman’s campaign did not respond to an offer Wednesday to comment on the Arkansas News Bureau/Stephens Media poll.

The poll also found that 54 percent of respondents had a favorable opinion of Boozman, 20 percent had unfavorable opinion, 21 percent said they were neutral and 5 percent did not recognize his name.

When asked about Lincoln, 33 percent said they had a favorable opinion, 52 percent had an unfavorable opinion, 14 percent were neutral and 1 percent did not recognize her name.

In the September poll, 43 percent had a favorable opinion of Boozman, 22 percent had an unfavorable opinion, 27 percent were neutral and 8 percent did not recognize his name. That poll found that 30 percent of respondents had a favorable opinion of Lincoln, 47 percent had an unfavorable opinion, 23 percent were neutral and 0 percent failed to recognize her name.

Lincoln, long considered among the most vulnerable of U.S. Senate incumbents nationally, has had more money to spend than Boozman and has been campaigning aggressively across the state for weeks. Boozman waited until this week to launch a statewide campaign tour.

“I don’t think you can fault her for running an ineffective campaign. It’s just sometimes messages don’t get received, and her message is not getting received,” said Hal Bass, a political science professor at Ouachita Baptist University in Arkadelphia.

Boozman’s campaign has sought to tie Lincoln in voter’s minds to President Obama, who is unpopular in Arkansas. A Boozman campaign ad that debuted Monday includes a clip, played twice, of Obama and Lincoln in a hug as Obama says of the federal health care overhaul, “I couldn’t have done it without Blanche Lincoln.”

Lincoln has criticized Boozman for joining a Republican moratorium on earmarks and for voting against measures to expand veterans’ benefits and send body armor and other supplies to American soldiers in Iraq. She also has touted her influence as chairman of the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry and described herself as a moderate who is able to bring opposing sides together.

Bass said Lincoln’s ability to compromise hasn’t won her much support in the current political climate.

“Her great policy accomplishment was getting a health care bill that was a compromise measure, and she gets hammered from both sides on it,” he said. “She’s not getting a lot of credit or appreciation from what you might call the liberal wing, and she’s certainly getting nothing but condemnation from the conservative wing — and there’s not much left in the center for her.”