By John Lyon
Arkansas News Bureau
LITTLE ROCK — A new poll by the University of Arkansas shows Republican U.S. Senate candidate John Boozman with a double-digit lead over Democratic incumbent Blanche Lincoln in the final days of the race.
The university’s Arkansas Poll, released today, found that 48 percent of respondents said they were likely to vote for the Republican 3rd District congressman, 36 percent were likely to vote for Lincoln and 16 percent were undecided, declined to answer or favored another candidate.
Among voters who said they were “very likely” to vote in the Nov. 2 general election, Boozman’s lead was greater, with 54 percent saying they were likely to vote for him, 35 percent likely to vote for Lincoln and 11 percent undecided, declining to answer or favoring another candidate.
Independent candidate Trevor Drown and Green Party candidate John Gray are also on the ballot in the Senate race.
The university’s Survey Research Center conducted 771 telephone interviews with adult Arkansans Oct. 8-20 for the poll. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
The poll also found that 30 percent of respondents said they approve of Lincoln as a senator and 53 percent said they disapprove.
When asked about Democratic Gov. Mike Beebe, 70 percent of respondents said they approve of his job as governor and 14 percent said they disapprove. President Obama received 35 percent approval and 57 percent disapproval.
Asked what political party they identify with, 21 percent said they think of themselves as Republicans, 28 percent said Democrats, 42 percent said independents, 7 percents chose “other” and 3 percent did not know or declined to answer.
“This election, as always in Arkansas, lies in the hands of people not closely aligned with either major party,” said Janine Parry, the poll’s director and a political science professor at the university. “Both parties are losing loyalists in a rough economy, meaning the percentage of unaffiliated respondents has swelled to the largest proportion we’ve recorded.”
Among independents only, 44 percent said they are closer to Republican, 21 percent said they are closer to Democrat, 33 percent said they are “just independent” and 2 percent did not know or declined to answer.
When asked whether they think of themselves as liberal, moderate or conservative, 14 percent said liberal, 35 percent said moderate, 44 percent said conservative and 8 percent did not know or declined to answer.
The large percentage of independent Arkansans declaring themselves closer to the Republican Party is in keeping with the national mood, Parry said, but she cautioned that “one election does not a pattern make.”
“A sizable (Republican) uptick happened in 2004 as well, then settled back down to traditional rhythms,” she said. “It’s going to take tremendous effort to capitalize on this opportunity to cultivate sustained two-party competition.”
Other results from the poll:
—Twenty-seven percent said they approve or strongly approve of the federal health care law enacted in March; 53 percent said they disapprove or strongly disapprove; and 19 percent did not know or declined to answer.
—Forty percent said they favor keeping all of the tax cuts enacted under President George W. Bush; 29 percent said they favor repealing the tax cuts for the wealthy; 16 percent said they favor repealing all the tax cuts; and 15 percent did not know or declined to answer.
—Fifty-six percent said they approve of openly gay men and women serving in the military; 35 percent said they disapprove; and 9 percent did not know or declined to answer.
—Sixty-seven percent said Arkansas is headed in the right direction; 22 percent said it is headed in the wrong direction; and 11 percent did not know or declined to answer.
—Nineteen percent said they are better off financially now than a year ago; 46 percent said they are about the same; 34 percent said they are worse off; and 1 percent did not know or declined to answer.
—Eighty-seven percent said child obesity is an obvious health concern facing their community. The same percentage said adult obesity is an obvious health concern.
