By Steve Brawner column
Would you build the house of your dreams if you didn’t plan to live in it?
I wouldn’t, either. But that’s exactly what would be happening if Mike Huckabee had any serious plans of running for president.
Huckabee, for whom I worked as a communications aide in 1997-99, is constructing a $2.2 million, 11,000-square-foot oceanfront mansion in Florida, according to a front page story in last Sunday’s statewide daily. That would seem to be a huge waste of money if he also were planning on spending the last half of this year and all of next slogging through Iowa, New Hampshire, and the rest of the country, and then the next eight years living in the White House.
Running for president is such a grueling task that you have to really want it, even need it, which is why I don’t see Sarah Palin taking the plunge, either.
While Huckabee is putting off questions about his presidential plans until this summer, others are making their intentions obvious. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty have formed exploratory committees, while former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, unable to let the dream die, is trying to explain his two divorces to social conservatives. Those folks want it.
Huckabee, by contrast, has too many reasons not to want it. Since leaving the Governor’s Mansion and running unsuccessfully for president in 2008, he has parlayed his likable media personality into lucrative book, TV and radio deals. He’s getting rich playing to his strengths.
Meanwhile, running for president means having to overcome his weaknesses, chief among them his inability to raise money. That will be a huge problem in an election cycle when even the losing major party candidate will raise and spend a billion dollars.
Moreover, Huckabee’s record as governor won’t play as well in 2012, when he would start the race as a contender, as it did in 2008, when he never really threatened to win it. In Arkansas, he raised taxes, created a big government-run health care program called ARKids First, and helped release a lot of convicts from prison, including two really bad guys, Wayne Dumond and Maurice Clemmons, who went on to kill people.
That’s not exactly a record that will win the support of the TEA Party – or of big business types who will back candidates like Romney.
President Obama may be deeply unpopular in Arkansas, but nationally it’s going to be a tough year to run for president as a Republican. Middle-of-the-road voters who only vote in presidential elections will be back, and many will not approve of some of the votes House Republicans have made since gaining control in 2010.
While Obama will be raising money and acting presidential, the primary process will force GOP candidates to run far to the right, especially if a fire-breather like Minnesota Rep. Michelle Bachmann enters the race and if Donald Trump keeps talking. Playing to their base, candidates will have no choice but to denounce the president and bemoan the country’s situation in ever-escalating terms until, by the time the general election cycle begins, Obama will be the safer, more moderate choice.
It’s going to be a circus, and I don’t think Huckabee has the stomach for it. I guarantee that his wife, Janet, doesn’t. She correctly thinks most of this is a bunch of nonsense.
Huckabee isn’t lying when he says that he won’t decide until this summer. There is still a part of him that hasn’t shut the door. But he’s leaning strongly enough against the idea that he is comfortable with building this big house.
And after spending the next few months jetting back and forth between his high-priced appearances and his beachfront paradise, he will come to the conclusion that he would be crazy to give all of that up for a presidential crapshoot he probably would lose.
In 1996, I interviewed Huckabee for a story for the Malvern Daily Record when he was still lieutenant governor. Back then, the former Baptist pastor said, “I’ve not had one moment of doubt or regret about entering into the political arena, but I wouldn’t have any doubt if tomorrow I said, ‘I’m outta here; I’m going to a small church on a lake.’ Preferably a lake.”
An ocean is a big lake.
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Steve Brawner is an independent journalist in Arkansas. His blog — Independent Arkansas — is linked at Arkansasnews.com. His e-mail address is brawnersteve@mac.com.
April 24th, 2011 at 12:06 pm
Building or buying a home doesn’t mean that the person isn’t going to run for the most powerful political office on the planet, if he or she has a decent shot at winning, which Huckabee does, based on a spate of GE polls we have seen of late.
For a comparison, guess who bought a nice home in Chicago in 2005 (yes, with help from, in what he himself called a “boneheaded” deal, a fraudster called Tony Rezko) and declared for President a year and half later?
“government-run health care program called ARKids First”
What do we have against making healthcare available/accessible to all children, Steve? Isn’t it a shame that so many of our kids, in the greatest economic power on planet, do not have available or adequate healthcare.
“support of the TEA Party”
The Tea Party isn’t a monolithic entity. It has some hardcore libertarians (such as the Pauls, Ron and Rand, and their fans), and there are others. In a recent poll, over 70% of the folks who identified themselves as Tea Party supporters did not want Medicare program as we know it to be dismantled. So at least 70% probably don’t mind much needed programs like ARKids.
As for pardons and commutations, Huckabee’s guiding principle was apparently that of giving second chances, which by itself is a good value, but Huck will have a chance to explain himself on this aspect in the campaign, should he choose to run.
Huck was right to reduce the disproportionate 108 year sentence for Clemmons:
{
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/02/huckabee-i-made-the-right-call-granting-clemency-to-eventual-murderer.php
“There was a kid who was 16 years old, he committed a burglary, he was aggravated, but not armed. And for that he got 108 years,” Huckabee said. “One-hundred-and-eight years. And most people wouldn’t have served — they wouldn’t have even been sentenced to 11, much less served 11. It was clearly a disproportionate sentence, based on all the other cases like his,” Huckabee said
}
Clemmons wasn’t released by Huckabee, as someone posting in “Arkanasas News” should be forthright enough to tell their readers. Clemmons got out in 2009 when the Democratic governor Mike Beebe dropped the no-bail warrant and allowed Clemmons to post bail and get out. See:
{
The Maurice Clemmons Case: We Blamed the Wrong Arkansas Governor
By Caleb Hannan, Thu., Oct. 21 2010
http://blogs.seattleweekly.com/dailyweekly/2010/10/the_maurice_clemmons_case_we_b.php
}
Huckabee may or may not run, but some of things you say this article, unfortunately, aren’t fair journalism, Mr. Brawner.
Gov. Huckabee is a conservative with empathy, a man of the people who came up from very humble roots. He understands the struggles of the working class folks like no other Republican that we know of does. Obama is beholden to the companies that fill up his billion dollar coffers. If the election were held today, this independent voter would choose Huckabee over any presidential prospect in the field, including Obama.
April 24th, 2011 at 2:29 pm
I seem to remember Obama did the same thing (the famous Resco supported Hyde Park $1.6 mil home), and Bush did the same thing – Crawford TX house (no lake), and so did other presidents (Reagan’s ranch, Nixon’s San Clemente home, even FDR’s Campobello). Some presidents already had nice homes (Bush’s Kennebunkport home, etc.).
High pressure people need reclusive getaways to recover. So does our former Governor. And building one in the midst of a campaign or in office would invite allegations of misspent funds. Now is the time to do this preplanning.
More voters seek Huckabee in the White House than any other candidate (check RCP http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-1452.html ). This has been true for months, and is surely not lost on the Governor. He is simply biding his time and waiting for the field to become more clear, a wise strategy indeed.
Your other allegations were either disproven in ‘08 or are apparently irreverent to the voters. Huckabee is thoroughly vetted by now (something that still has not happened to Obama). Please keep your charges up to date, rather than re-hashing old MoveOn, Daily Kos and Romney talking points.
April 25th, 2011 at 12:18 am
Silly, Democrat ! You wish Mike wouldn’t run ! That’s underhanded to try to say Janet is not supportive of Mike. You very well know that Janet has always been there for Mike ! To suggest otherwise, is really dirty politics. Now as for building a house, that is the American Dream. I’m not in the know too much, but I have noticed that every President has a house to retreat to during their time in office and after leaving office. The house is a non-issue ! What did you run out of writing material the day you wrote this article? You are showing your wishful thinking ! I sort of feel that Mike will run and become Democrats’ worst night mare ! I wonder if you could have some sleepless nights worrying about it !
April 25th, 2011 at 5:41 am
Thanks for reading SamRD and BobM. The purpose of my column – and I think I made it clear from the headline throughout the piece – was not that Huckabee shouldn’t run. It’s that he isn’t running. Those weren’t “charges.” I think ARKids First is a good thing, and his tax policies helped create a surplus that Beebe used to satisfy the Lake View case without another tax increase. I agree, Bob – he is a a conservative with empathy – but a lot of people, including many TEA Party members, did not approve of his policies in 2008 and will not approve of them in 2012.
As for the clemency issue – Huckabee had a big hand in the releases of both Wayne Dumond and Maurice Clemmons. He can’t get away from it. But I don’t think that disqualifies him from being president. In fact, what concerns me most is when he tries to pass the blame to others.
Finally, why does every column have to have an Obama angle? But to answer, they are two different people. In 2005, Obama was still a rising star but not yet a candidate with one election under his belt, and besides, that was three years before the election, not one. Huckabee knows what he is getting into.
Regardless, we’ll know in a couple of months if I am right or wrong, and if I am wrong, I will admit it in print. And at that point, go ahead and remind me I was wrong. I’ll deserve it.
April 25th, 2011 at 8:03 am
2012Huck1Fan, I will sleep just fine if Mike Huckabee runs for president. And I know that Janet is supportive of her husband. But I also know that she thinks that politics is mostly a bunch of nonsense. And she is right.
April 25th, 2011 at 11:12 am
Wow, Steve. That is one of the worst hatchet-jobs I’ve seen. You seemed pretty jazzed about Gov. Huckabee, and ARKids First, when I drove you around to the TV commercial shoots back in ‘97,’98. Were you authentic then, or are you authentic now?
April 25th, 2011 at 2:42 pm
Hey, Scott. How are you? I figure you are kidding. But if not, as I explained to the others, the column is not about whether or not Huckabee should run. It’s about whether or nor he will run. And creating a government-run health care program like ARKids First makes it difficult to win a Republican Party presidential nomination.