By Harry King

LITTLE ROCK — The day the 2011 Football Preview edition of Hawgs Illustrated arrived in the mail, there was a silent thank-you to the headline writer who avoided any mention of the 10-2 prediction in a particular column and went with “Realism Prevails.”

Two days later, during the introduction of a brief Friday segment, the radio show host blew it, going on about how his guest’s prognostication for the upcoming season was available in the magazine.

The second paragraph of the magazine piece says, “… Arkansas should win at least 10 games.”
Once it is in print, there is no room to revise based on summer happenings or, more importantly, in-season developments.

The publisher made me do it, but, now committed to 10-2, there is some explaining to do.
The educated guess begins with Arkansas’ returning players, particularly at the skill positions, a favorable schedule, and a well-founded faith that Bobby Petrino will develop a quarterback.
Greg Childs, Knile Davis, Joe Adams, Cobi Hamilton, Dennis Johnson, and Jarius Wright are known commodities.

Arkansas’ SEC schedule is such that Texas A&M might be the third best team the Razorbacks will play. The Aggies’ lopsided loss to LSU in the Cotton Bowl does not accurately project this season, but they gave up 446 yards to an erratic offense.

The Aggies line up behind Alabama and LSU in degree of difficulty because Auburn cannot be as good without Cam Newton and Nick Fairley, Ole Miss will be fortunate to avoid the Western Division cellar, Vanderbilt has not done better than 3-5 in the SEC since 1993, Western Division darkhorse Mississippi State plays in Little Rock, and Tennessee is still finding its way under Derek Dooley.

Pressed for details, here is a game-by-game:

Sept. 24 — Whether AJ McCarron or Phillip Sims, the Alabama quarterback will be a newcomer shouldering enormous expectations. Defense carries the day. ALABAMA 24, ARKANSAS 21.

Oct. 1 — Until the Aggies prove they can beat Arkansas, the Razorbacks will be the pick. ARKANSAS 31, TEXAS A&M 21.

Oct. 8 — No Newton. No Fairley. No way. ARKANSAS 35, AUBURN 24.

Oct. 22 — This time, the transfer quarterback at Ole Miss is Barry Brunetti, who played in four games last year at West Virginia. A Parade All-American out of Memphis, he can’t do it by himself. ARKANSAS 31, OLE MISS 15.

Oct. 29 — When it comes to Vanderbilt football, history says it all. ARKANSAS 42, VANDERBILT 21.

Nov. 5 — Although Stephen Garcia has been suspended five times, South Carolina is a surprising choice by many to repeat in the Eastern Division. Can Steve Spurrier really count on Garcia? ARKANSAS 28, SOUTH CAROLINA 20.

Nov. 12 — It will be at least one more year before Dooley has the Vols winning consistently. ARKANSAS 31, TENNESSEE 21.

Nov. 19 — Mississippi State might be a legitimate contender in the West, but the Bulldogs will not win it all until Chris Relf becomes a more proficient passer or graduates. ARKANSAS 35, MISSISSIPPI STATE 31.

Nov. 25 — Unless LSU’S new offensive coordinator, Steve Kragthorpe, is a miracle worker, anything can happen with Jordan Jefferson at quarterback. The defense is good enough to carry the Tigers no matter the identity of the quarterback. LSU 21, ARKANSAS 20.

For reference or ridicule, clip and save the column and know that the week by week prediction might change as the season evolves.

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Harry King is sports columnist for Stephens Media’s Arkansas News Bureau. His e-mail address is hking@arkansasnews.com.