By John Brummett
No basis exists for any Democrat to be optimistic about unseating any Republican member of Congress anywhere in the South.
The white rural Democrat, once the reigning demographic of old Dixie, is fast becoming extinct.
But, if there is an exception that proves that rule, it might occur in eastern Arkansas with an old-style farmer Democrat and quintessential Delta scion such as this irascibly savvy Bubba-type from Marvell named Clark Hall.
Bubba-type? Isn’t that an offensive stereotype?
I hope not. I mean by that a good ol’ boy farmer with a country style and a common wisdom, at home on a tractor and feasting on barbecue and catfish.
A dynamic could be forming in the 1st District of eastern and north-central Arkansas by which a relatively weak Republican incumbent gets challenged by a relatively strong Democrat in a peculiar area in which a recently solid Democratic heritage conceivably could be re-tapped.
So with Arkansas famous for political eccentricity that defies the conventional wisdom ruling everywhere else, and even with Barack Obama at the head of the ticket dragging down Arkansas Democrats everywhere, there is a certain semi-logical basis for hope among Democrats.
Republican Rick Crawford got elected there last year in spite of himself and because of:
—The tea party revolt and general antipathy toward Obama and Nancy Pelosi.
—The retirement of Democratic incumbent Marion Berry.
—The emergence as Berry’s would-be successor on the Democratic side of a young congressional aide named Chad Causey, who was a satisfactory candidate but not a particularly strong one.
It is possible that the revulsion over health care reform has subsided a bit. Even Republican pollsters will admit that, while indicators still favor their further gains in Arkansas, the intensity of voter anger is less than in 2010.
Another thing: Congressional redistricting has extended the 1st District southward through the Mississippi River-adjoining Delta all the way to the Louisiana line. That’s a demographic advantage for Democrats, considering the heavy African-American population.
So now Crawford, a farm radio guy transplanted from Missouri and who has a little personal bankruptcy on his resume, could be in for a battle.
His name-identification ratings are uncommonly low for a sitting congressman, reflecting that he is a freshman who got elected by a force transcending himself. He also is non-native in a static region that might appreciate a home-grown choice like Hall.
Crawford talked about farming in a radio show; Hall, newly announced as a Democratic candidate, is a farmer of more than three decades.
Hall also is an Arkansas State graduate. He was a justice of the peace and later the 10-year mayor of Marvell before getting elected to the state Legislature and rising to the chairmanship of the State Agencies and Governmental Affairs Committee. The national Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has courted him feverishly.
Republicans probably will try to cast Hall as a hyper-partisan Democrat. That’s because he took the lead in the last legislative session in trying to impose that “Fayetteville Finger” redistricting plan. Hall will say he was only trying to consolidate the Delta into one seamless congressional district of common interest.
Republicans already have tried to make something of Hall’s saying we “shouldn’t turn down free money” from the federal government to plan a state-run health care exchange under the new federal health care law. Hall will say he merely favors local control.
It might even be that Republicans would try to make something of Hall’s longtime career in political office in a region now on the front pages over federal charges of rampant official corruption.
Altogether, I’m about to talk myself into a tinge of excitement about this race.
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John Brummett is a columnist for the Arkansas News Bureau in Little Rock. His e-mail address is jbrummett@arkansasnews.com; his telephone number is (501) 374-0699.
October 20th, 2011 at 7:02 am
I heard Michael Cook say on the Talk Business episode of October 16, 2011 that he expects the Democrats to take back the First Congressional District and Rick Crawford will be an one term congressman. I don’t think that will happen like he thinks. President Obama is the gift that keeps on giving here in Arkansas. Why else are all the Democrats getting beat?
John, you are banking on the possibility that people are not as mad as they were earlier about Obamacare, but now the time is getting close to when Obamacare is going to be put into action. Don’t you think that will make people even more nervous and upset?
Thanks again for putting some food for thought out there. No one knows the future and if Hall wins then I am sure the factors you mention would play a major part. I sure do hate to be losing you.
October 20th, 2011 at 12:22 pm
A few stats:
Crawford won in 2008 by 8%. But this was in a tidal wave election – the biggest GOP sweep in 70+ years.
John McCain carried the newly reconstituted 1st District by over 40,000 votes.
No doubt the 1st District voters would probably prefer to vote in a conservative Democrat, history and culture being what it is there. . . . but Obama is a huge drag.
I’d bet on the incumbent Republican in this race. . .I think he’ll win unless he runs a shoddy campaign . . .
October 20th, 2011 at 3:54 pm
You are dreaming John. This a Red State now that liberal ideals are no longer hidden!
October 20th, 2011 at 4:13 pm
possibly.
October 20th, 2011 at 6:54 pm
@Doug – I still think the voters in Eastern Arkansas would love to vote for a Blue Dog Democrat type, kinda like in the 4th District where Mike Ross appears to be unassailable.
Remember, tradition is hard to overcome in parts of the South and Crawford is the 1st GOPer to win since Reconstruction.
It might take a few cycles for voters in eastern Arkansas to form a new tradition in voting for Republicans. Momentum definitely appears to be in the Republicans’ favor. . .
I definitely think Crawford has a leg up, but nothing can be taken for granted. . .
October 21st, 2011 at 10:05 pm
I liked this column. I think Crawford has a good shot at being reelected, but Clark Hall is a great candidate for this district.
I keep hearing people say Crawford won by 8 points, which is true. However, a Green candidate got 5% so it was really 52% Crawford and 48% for someone else to his left in 2010. So, while Crawford’s margin is not as impressive as it initially sounds, a Green could certainly be a Tea Party enabler for this district in 2012.
The electorate in the First District should be more Democratic in a Presidential year than in an off Presidential year like 2010. Captain says he thinks Crawford will probably win unless he runs a shoddy race. I would not go that far. Crawford had a big win running a shoddy race last time. By all accounts he is a pretty shoddy Congressman that few Republicans respect. He also seemed to be a pretty shoddy businessman before running for Congress. I just don’t see shoddiness alone, short of him doing something outrageously stupid, stopping him this time.
I think the way Clark Hall wins is for Crawford to never exceed expectations, Hall to run an excellent campaign and raise needed funds, and for Democrats to catch just a little bit of luck. It’s certainly possible.
One break Democrats could get: Arkansas is bass ackwards from the nation. Romney being at the top of the ticket instead of Perry is good news in local Arkansas races.
I also must point one other thing out. Halting says for this election we will be “getting close to when Obamacare is going to be put into action.” How about that for you? Even Halting has faith our very conservative Supreme Court will uphold much or all of health reform!